HTG official High Definition high octane DVD format war, the aftermath

[impala454]

What does the number of PS3's sold have anything to do with the number of software titles sold? The two have nothing to do with each other.

You guys were saying that the PS3 should be counted as a Blu Ray player sold. In other words, someone who owns a PS3 is a consumer of Blu Ray, and as such will purchase Blu Ray discs. I posted those numbers because they debunk that theory. When more PS3s have been sold than Blu Ray discs, how could you make this assumption?

You can talk attach rates all you want. Studios don't give a rip. They want titles sold, and so far, Blu-Ray has been out-selling HD-DVD discs two to one. Period. When you can tell me how this works in HD-DVD's favor, let me know.

I guarantee you studios give a rip. They have people analyzing this situation all the time. I seriously doubt they count the PS3 owner as a legitimate Blu Ray disc purchasing consumer. How could they? 5.5 million people were willing to spend $400-800 on a PS3 but they didn't even purchase 1 Blu Ray disc? If you were the head of a multi-billion dollar movie studio and were given stats like these, would you assume you could sell your BD discs to PS3 owners?

Don't mistake me as being anti-blu ray, I just don't like that the PS3 is the best player available. I also don't want to have to pay $500+ to get a good non-PS3 BD player. If I see a good BD player that's updateable pop up for <$400 some time soon I'll probably pick one up (I'd imagine/hope there will be some deals this Christmas season). The only reason I got a Toshiba HD-XA2 is because I got it for $369 as an open box.

I am continually amazed at the number of people who want HD, but don't want the best possible HD. Maybe it's because they're trying to justify their purchase and don't want their format to die.

What makes BD the "best possible HD"? Does the 1920x1080@60Hz + DD+/TrueHD look/sound better out of the blue box vs the red box? As of last night the XA2 outputs HBR audio via HDMI. BDs have a 25 & 50GB disc, HD-DVDs have 15, 30, and will soon have 51GB. So honestly there is no real technological difference between these two formats anymore. I personally just want one of them to hurry up and take over. I don't believe we'll truly have a major influx of titles available until we have one format.

[Ovation]

Ovation, are you suggesting that the content providers should cater to the least common denotonator?

No, I'm suggesting that that is what they CHOOSE to do, not what they SHOULD do.

The beauty of Blu-Ray is that it has enough room to include BOTH a DD track and an lossless track and still have room for more. When studios only include lossy tracks, they're leaving out the high-end audience. When studios include both, they cater to both. I'd rather support a format that caters to the high-end consumers AND STILL WORKS for the lower-end consumers. Why invest in HD (video or audio) at all if we're just going to expect the content creators to give us stuff that caters to low-end consumers?

It's early days yet and the instances of only lossy track on HD DVD are not as common as you appear to believe. I remember when DTS was extremely rare (it's still pretty rare). Besides, the lowest common denominator has ALWAYS been the target audience for mass produced goods. People who want something better/different will usually have to pay more (witness anyone who wants MCH analogue outputs from a hi-def disc player). These are not political parties or religions, they're electronics manufacturers. We don't need to "subscribe" to one over the other. There are four ways this could play out:

One--neither side 'wins' and they learn to co-exist (DD vs DTS)
Two--neither side 'wins' and they learn to co-exist at the margins (DVD-A vs SACD)
Three--one side 'wins' (DVD vs DIVX) and becomes hugely popular
Four--one side 'wins' but remains on the margin while SD DVD continues to carry the day until some other delivery format emerges.

However it plays out, I will not invest any "attachment" to a format. I didn't do it for DVD-A vs SACD (I have a universal player and lots of each) and I won't do it here.

[drsiebling]

The notion that BD and HD DVD are equal in picture quality is a notion that is not only false, but needs to be corrected immediately.

I recently visited Panasonic Hollywood Labs, the encoding house that has done some spectacular work over the last decade or so for the home video industry. I was shown a demo of 2k masters compared to High Bitrate HD DVD and BD encodes. The BD encodes were easily able to achieve transparency to the masters, while the HD DVD encodes, well, weren't even close. We were given a blind split screen demo where we didn't know which side of the picture was BD/HD DVD vs. the master. The HD DVD side was always easy to pick out as it had reduced detail and compression artifacts, while the BD side was always a wash with the master. Some might say that it really doesn't matter without access to a master to compare it to, but I tend to believe that we should all strive for the best PQ possible and without compromises. This demo was very eye-opening for me and really showed the strengths of BD.

So, HD DVD might have a slight edge in interactivity for the moment, but for me, it is all about PQ and AQ. Anyone who has looked at the numbers can see that BD is trouncing HD DVD in the number of titles released with lossless audio as well...

So, cheap 1080i players might be tempting to some, but true 1080p with an abundance of lossless audio choices will win me over every time!

[drsiebling]

just waking up each morning is something to be much more passionate about.

George... thanks for that bit of wisdom. I can honestly say that you, sir, rock! :P

[George Bellefontaine]

George... thanks for that bit of wisdom. I can honestly say that you, sir, rock! :P

Why thank you, my friend.

[Hdale85]

And Panasonic isn't biased at all on the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray comparison That set up was probably perfected for the Blu-Ray portion and not so much for the HD-DVD. I've seen some horrible looking blu-rays and I've seen some horrible HD-DVD's as well although not as many. I've seen some great of both too and they look damn close.

[aud19]

Yeah I'd be willing to wager that any PQ difference between the two has NOTHING to do with the format and more the source, transfer etc

[impala454]

What equipment was used? What's really curious to me is how detail was lost based on the method of reading the optical disc. Artifacts I could understand, but detail is a result of the encoded video, which supposedly was exactly the same in this case. And not to question Panasonic's trustworthiness, but if the PQ was exactly the same, do you think they'd have showed it to you?

I'm also not really sure why you're alluding to cheap 1080i players being the boon of HD-DVD, when half the models available are 1080p.

off the topic: what's a good Blu player around $400-500 besides the PS3? I'm anticipating lots of gift certs for the holidays

[Hdale85]

I like the new Samsung units. Been thinking about this one http://www.samsung.com/us/consumer/d...d=BD-P1400/XAA


This is what I'm waiting for

http://reviews.cnet.com/video-players-and-recorders/samsung-bd-up5000/4505-6463_7-32553618.html?tag=nefdprod.rev

Combo player. It's already advertised online for well under 1,000.

[Nolan B]

You may not, but the studios sure do. Sales is ALL they care about (sure piracy is huge too, but that, inevitably, has an affect on sales). That's why you'll see more studios support Blu-Ray as long as software sales are higher.

HD DVD is the only format to attract a dual format studio to go exclusive.

a 1.78:1 (yes its not 2:1 anymore) sales slpit means nothing to studios when the sales equal the amount they do. As much as everyone at Bluray.com would hate to admit it studios, CEs etc are looking at a slightly bigger picture then just a lead of one format over another (currently) equaling a few thousand discs. My gut tells me they want more then that...but i guess i could be wrong.

The reality and most important thing is the BD sales lead hit a max of 2:1 and never grew. It never grew. That is very telling. Did you see that HD DVD sold more stand alone players in 1 day then BD sold since inception? :W Do you know more XBOX HD DVD add ons have sold then all the BD stand alone players combined?

The PS3 which sold millions was promised to studios as being the "trojen horse" and the best it could do was a 2:1. Showing the PS3 had a BD attach rate of less then 1 BD movie per PS3 owner. Warner Bros has publicly said its not wise to rely on the gaming community. think they are happy with the performance of the PS3? Think anyone is? I sold my sony shares :W

Of course time will tell, but my gut says i will be selling my PS3 and BD movies in 6 months and my kids will be reading about a case study about a little format in marketing 101 called Blu Ray as an example of how not to go to market.

And, believe it or not, that affects you too. Why buy a $198 player if you can't get the titles you want? Especially if you will eventually be buying a player that DOES play the titles you want (albeit maybe when the prices drop, since that seems to be your biggest complaint). But, it could also be why other hardware manufactures don't want to sale HD-DVD players: They're profit has already been cut off.

this one is easy.

Lets put aside all HDM for a sec. Think about DVD. There are TONS of DVD players available at $49 and $99. Did that cut out all other CEs? Fact is all CEs are happy with Toshiba releasing a $200 player. They are trying to win the war with that (and likely will) when they do other CEs will release players at the market they normally go after (not the $200 market). Do you think Denon, Krell, Onkyo, Rotel, Lin, Classe, Krell, etc care about the $200 player market? They dont. Believe me when I say they are cheering for Thoshiba to win the war with a $200 player.

There's nothing to stop you. But that's not what the studios want to hear. You're going to buy an HD-DVD player to play DVDs? Maybe that's why HD-DVD software sales are behind 2 to 1. Or, it could be due to the fact that HD-DVD software cost more than Blu-Ray discs.

Or it could be that bigger and better titles are coming out on Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD.

mmm..lets let others chime in...personally I think HD DVD wins in upcoming tittles...anyone agree?

Universal
American Gangster
Charlie Wilson's War (Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts).
Wanted
The Incredible Hulk
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Mamma Mia! ( I do not want to see this, but a lot of women will, my wife for one example.)
The Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

Paramount/Dreamworks
Bee Movie
Beowulf
Sweeney Todd
1-18-08 (Cloverfield)
The Spiderwick Chronicles
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (should come for both formats or not at all)
Kung Fu Panda (animated from Dreamworks)
The Love Guru (Mike Myers new comedy)
Tropic Thunder (Spielberg produced Action Comedy with Ben Stiller)
Iron Man

Warner
Fred Claus
I Am Legend
Get Smart
The Dark Knight
Speed Racer
10,000 B.C.

New Line
The Golden Compass
Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo

Sony
Vantage Point
Hancock
Step Brothers
You Don't Mess with Zohan (Adam Sandler)

Fox/MGM
Hitman
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
The Mist
Alvin and the Chipmunks
Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem
Starship Dave (Eddie Murphy)
X-Files 2 (films in December, supposed to come out in July at theaters)
Jumper
Horton Hears a Who

Disney
National Treasure: Book of Secrets
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Wall-E

Obviously you support Blu Ray (probably dont own HD DVD), and by your logic do you think studios wanted to hear that millions of PS3s only gave (a dropping) 1.78:1 lead in sfotware ales when it was promised by sony to "win the war" ?

It boggles my mind that $201 is the deal breaker on this. ($198 for the cheapest 1080i HD-DVD player and $399 for the cheapest 1080pBlu-Ray player.) With cheaper content prices, you can make that $201 back on Blu-Ray in no time.

why does this boggle your mind? its a fact that mass DVD adoption was due to price when players hit less then $200 in 1999. Thats a fact.

Contrary to marketing hype 1080i is just as good (sometimes better then 1080P) for MOST people.

BTW...I dont know where you shop but I never pay more for HD DVD then BD. the only time I pay more for HD DVD is when its a combo and even then it only equals the prce of a FOX release...mind you there arnt many of those :W

[Chetk]

a 1.78:1 (yes its not 2:1 anymore) sales slpit means nothing to studios when the sales equal the amount they do. The reality and most important thing is the BD sales lead hit a max of 2:1 and never grew. It never grew. The PS3 which sold millions was promised to studios as being the "trojen horse" and the best it could do was a 2:1.
Obviously you support Blu Ray (probably dont own HD DVD), and by your logic do you think studios wanted to hear that millions of PS3s only gave (a dropping) 1.78:1 lead in sfotware ales when it was promised by sony to "win the war" ?

Contrary to marketing hype 1080i is just as good (sometimes better then 1080P) for MOST people.

Well, I guess if you think worse is better, then HD-DVD is the format for you.

[Nolan B]

Well, I guess if you think worse is better, then HD-DVD is the format for you.

HD DVD is doing worse today...no question. Can we both agree that the sales (even combined) represent such a small number that wo ever is "winning" really isnt winning anything in the eyes of the studios.

I am just saying that the studios are probably looking at a bigger picture then the current sales. They want millions sold....not thousands.

[Chetk]

HD DVD is doing worse today...no question. Can we both agree that the sales (even combined) represent such a small number that wo ever is "winning" really isnt winning anything in the eyes of the studios.

No. We cannot.

I will agree with you that they are looking at a bigger picture, but I think that "winning" right now, does play a large role in the big picture. So saying, "'winning' really isnt winning anything", in my opinion, is not something I would say.

[Chris D]

So what the hell? HD-DVD making a BIG run this week... having a sale that I don't know about? The usual discount thing can't account for this...
http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

[Hdale85]

Wow looks like BD went down a bit and HD went up. Might be people that got all those 99 dollar players getting software to play on them.

[Andrew M Ward]

Perhaps already noted in this thread...
but there really can't be a format war if nobody shows up

Both formats will end up being storage devices while the technology moves elsewhere...

This is like arguing about SA-CD and DVD-A... which went on around here years after both had failed
News Flash: Almost nobody cares... (Just us)

What's up next: Nano-technology drives & High Speed downloads... see you later physical Media :Z

[Hdale85]

Well I have to say that HD disc's are quite a bit more popular then SACD and DVD-A. I mention Hi Res music formats to people all the time and they look at me with a blank look. If I mention HD-DVD or Blu Ray they almost ALWAYS know what it is. And I run into people buying the disc's all the time. I don't think you can compare this to SACD and DVD-A.

[Andrew M Ward]

Below was in my in-box from amazon.com....

BUY an HD-DVD Player for $199.00 and get 10 Discs Free..!!!!

Does not strike me as a media and format people are lined up to go buy... :rofl:



Amazon.com

Movies & TV


Let them choose from millions of items
› Amazon.com Gift Cards
Your Amazon.com Today's Deals See All Departments

Get an HD DVD player for $199, plus 10 free HD DVDs
Get an HD DVD player for $199, plus a total of 10 HD DVDs free


Dear Amazon.com Customer,
As someone who has purchased an HDTV or browsed for high-def DVDs or players at Amazon.com, you might be interested in jumping into HD DVD.

For a limited time, get a Toshiba HD-A3 HD DVD player for $199, plus a total of 10 free HD DVDs. (The HD-A30 and HD-A35 players are also eligible for the 10 free HD DVDs offer.)

See details

[impala454]

What's up next: Nano-technology drives & High Speed downloads... see you later physical Media :Z

I will welcome this, but it won't happen for a long time.

[Hdale85]

They run a special so it seems no one buys it? So the grocery store has a special on hmm say ground beef? They do the special because no one buys it? Doesn't quite add up.

[Nolan B]

The reason why there is a "special" on HD DVD players is for no other reason then that is how the HD DVD camp believes they will win the war. Cheap players. Thay have been saying that from the beggining. Cheap players is what made people adopt to DVD, and cheap players is what sold over 90,000 HD DVD players in 1 day.

BTW i think $199 players are the norm, or will be the norm for the value HD DVD player market. That price is here to stay.

[Hdale85]

Oh I bet it will get down to 99 permanently before long here.

[Nolan B]

Blu-ray Players

Samsung BD-P1400 - $377 at Circuit City (Thurs-Sat
includes 3 free Blu-ray movies
Sony 40GB PS3 - $399 at Best Buy (Fri-Sat)
includes 'Open Season' Blu-ray and NBA '08 PS3 Game
Sony 40GB PS3 - $399 at Circuit City
includes free wireless controller
Sony 80GB PS3 - $499 at Wal-Mart (Sat-Sun)
"secret sale" includes 10 free Blu-ray movies
Samsung BD-P1400 - $399 at Best Buy (Fri-Sat)
includes 2 Blu-ray movies (from 10 pre-selected titles)
Sony BDP-S300 - $399 at Best Buy (Online Thurs; in-store Fri-Sat)
includes 'Spider-Man 3' Blu-ray AND $100 Best Buy gift card
Sony BDP-S300 - $399 at Circuit City
includes $25 gift card

HD DVD Players

Toshiba HD-A3 HD DVD Player - $169 at Sears (Fri only)
Toshiba HD-A3 HD DVD Player - $179.99 at Costco (now-Sun)
Toshiba HD-A3 HD DVD Player - $199.99 at Best Buy (Fri-Sat)
Toshiba HD-A3 HD DVD Player - $99 at Bernies [Mass, Conn, R.I.] (Fri, 8am-Noon)
Toshiba HD-A3 HD DVD Player - $149 at HH Gregg [Southeast] (Fri-Sat)

[Hdale85]

I hate Best Buy and their BS gift card stuff. Staples has started doing the same now.

[Race Car Driver]

Sony BDP-S300 - $399 at Best Buy (Online Thurs; in-store Fri-Sat)
includes 'Spider-Man 3' Blu-ray AND $100 Best Buy gift card

Thats kinda tempting.

Im still leaning to Bluray, however the longer i wait the cheaper it gets, and the more I save (i am also holding out on buying DVDs so thats saving me money too)

[Chetk]

Sat. morning starting at 7:00am, Walmart will be selling the 80GB PS3 for $499, but you get to pick any 10 Blu-Ray movies you want (under $30 each) off of the shelf for free. Plus, you still get your 5 free Blu-Ray movies by mail. That's 15 free Blu-Ray movies.

[Hdale85]

Really! Hmm....this is tempting.....hmmm unfortunately timeing is just off.

[Andrew M Ward]

I will welcome this, but it won't happen for a long time.

The move away from Discs won't happen for a long time... but how long...
long enough for me to buy a new player (BD or HD DVD) and collect maybe 40 or 50 discs...

so then I have a collection of 5o of something... (that's just a bit too SACD for me) by the time it's gone ...

:W


(sorry... I'm already transferring my 500 plus DVD's to a stand alone drive)

The new disc formats are both interim solutions (see Laser Disc) but that's just my opinion and most of the rest of North America that is not buying either format... while DVD sales continue to skyrocket ...

8O

[aud19]

Even though it's an even less popular attitude than being a "one format fanboy", I tend to agree with Andrew. IMO, either format is just an interim solution with no real legs. They aren't even really helpful as a data storage medium like previous optical formats. Particularly with Hard disk prices continuing to plummet and GB/$ skyrocket. As much of a fan of HD I am, frankly I don't see how either format is commercially viable in the long term.

[Race Car Driver]

Well to me a $100 player and $20 discs are fair. When either of the HD formats get to that as about a standard price point, thats when I can call it an "acceptable loss".

Ah well, this whole deal is silly.

[impala454]

The move away from Discs won't happen for a long time... but how long...
long enough for me to buy a new player (BD or HD DVD) and collect maybe 40 or 50 discs...

Well I have no doubt in my mind that the bandwidth to our homes will increase by leaps and bounds very soon, but bandwidth to our homes isn't the problem. Who's going to be the lucky company to first introduce this miracle internet technology that can serve 50GB downloads to millions of people at a time? It's the provider end that is going to take a long time my friend. So I say just sit back and enjoy the HD discs we have at hand, that's what I've been doin all weekend :B

[Chris D]

**15** free movies?? Holy schnikies.

For those who are jumping on that, make sure you pick up Cars and Ratatouille. Ratatouille right now is the ultimate demo disc for PQ. Un-frackin-believable.

[Hdale85]

Well I have 15Mbit down right now which equates to about 1.9MB per second download speed. That equates to about 7 hours for 45 gigs which is a typical blu ray disc. So yeah still not fast enough. IPTV is great much better then the current HD things like DirecTV and Cable but it's still nothing close to HD-DVD or BD and it will be long after we start getting fiber to the house when we are able to stream that kind of content.

Well I have no doubt in my mind that the bandwidth to our homes will increase by leaps and bounds very soon, but bandwidth to our homes isn't the problem. Who's going to be the lucky company to first introduce this miracle internet technology that can serve 50GB downloads to millions of people at a time? It's the provider end that is going to take a long time my friend. So I say just sit back and enjoy the HD discs we have at hand, that's what I've been doin all weekend :B

[impala454]

And even once speeds like that are in our homes, someone has to serve tons of those mega fast stream to millions of people at the same time

[Andrew M Ward]

Well I have no doubt in my mind that the bandwidth to our homes will increase by leaps and bounds very soon, but bandwidth to our homes isn't the problem. Who's going to be the lucky company to first introduce this miracle internet technology that can serve 50GB downloads to millions of people at a time? It's the provider end that is going to take a long time my friend. So I say just sit back and enjoy the HD discs we have at hand, that's what I've been doin all weekend :B

It'll work like this... Go on line... pick out the movie you want to buy.. hit download... go do something else, like go to bed and get up in the morning with the movies on your hard drive...

I'm not suggesting the movie be streamed but simply downloaded just like video games are and darn near every thing else

BTW: I've been enjoy my DVD's at 1/3 the cost and 8,457,926,043,560,196,832,709,574 times the selection :W

there's about 5 HD discs I would care to own...(Not quite there yet) :rofl:

[aud19]

It'll work like this... Go on line... pick out the movie you want to buy.. hit download... go do something else, like go to bed and get up in the morning with the movies on your hard drive...

Not only that but you guys have to realize that besides the greater bandwidth offered by fibre they're already planning on an entirely different way to download media with numerous servers and shared content in a mesh more like a hybrid between how the net is today and something like how Bit Torrent files work. A smart web if you will. It's not as far off as some of you would like to think :

[Andrew M Ward]

Not only that but you guys have to realize that besides the greater bandwidth offered by fibre they're already planning on an entirely different way to download media with numerous servers and shared content in a mesh more like a hybrid between how the net is today and something like how Bit Torrent files work. A smart web if you will. It's not as far off as some of you would like to think :

I don't think it will be long either...
since I have already downloaded 2 movies (somewhat illegally I admit) it took about 3 hours for each one and I have a standard Comcast cable connection nothing special...

But if you think about it... if you do that before you go to work or before you go to bed.. what's the difference..? the next time you go to your computer it's waiting for you fully loaded.. and with $29.00 software I can edit the movie right down to the frame... so 1). No Previews 2). No Warning 3). Just hit play and the movie comes right on...

What is this Blu-Ray HD DVD thing again..? :rofl:

~

[Hdale85]

Ok and if you think they are going to make it that easy to edit a movie you get from some online service your out of your mind . Also they will be HEAVILY DRM'd like no other! It will be damn near impossible to use your content I can guarantee you that.

[Charles]

I like the idea of HTPC and storing your movie collection on hard drives with back up's. With HD, it would be tough and expensive with the space needed. Downloads however don't excite me that much at this point. I have involuntarily proven this to myself with an awesome library of movies and hardly ever using on demand services.

[impala454]

Not only that but you guys have to realize that besides the greater bandwidth offered by fibre they're already planning on an entirely different way to download media with numerous servers and shared content in a mesh more like a hybrid between how the net is today and something like how Bit Torrent files work. A smart web if you will. It's not as far off as some of you would like to think :

Well it probably wont' be so much of a "can we do it" as a "will we do it". I just don't think it makes business sense. I think physical media is just too lucrative of a market to justify companies moving away to an IP based market. You have your retail outlets making lots of money on physical media, you're not gonna cut them out without a fight. You have movie studios stamping out DVDs/HD-DVDs/BDs for literally pennies. You have hugely popular companies like Netflix making big profits mailing the things for extremely cheap.

So you can have very cheap physical media, or you can spend billions to upgrade major infrastructure, and both end up with the same result, you get a movie to the consumer. What profit would there be in AT&T or Comcast providing a 100Mbps service to the customer? At the risk of sounding like that old Bill Gates quote, I personally don't see what I could do at my home with more than the 5Mbps or so that I have currently.

I'm sure the day will come where we have 1000Gbps to our cell phones, but I just think high enough speeds to cut out physical media altogether is a long ways off. Not because it can't be done, but because it doesn't make business sense yet.

[aud19]

Well it probably wont' be so much of a "can we do it" as a "will we do it". I just don't think it makes business sense. I think physical media is just too lucrative of a market to justify companies moving away to an IP based market. You have your retail outlets making lots of money on physical media, you're not gonna cut them out without a fight. You have movie studios stamping out DVDs/HD-DVDs/BDs for literally pennies. You have hugely popular companies like Netflix making big profits mailing the things for extremely cheap.

You'd also be cutting out all the shipping and packaging etc costs that exist now not to mention the studios could charge the same as what physical media rents/sells for today and cut out all those middle-men you just mentioned. All that profit is now THEIRS. As well as complete control of their media/property (which I'm sure they'd love). You don't think that sounds attractive to movie studios....? Second, setting up a few servers wouldn't be THAT expensive and the ISP's are the one's fronting the bill for the wiring infrastructure and it seems at least a couple companies see a business plan for fibre optics as they're rolling it out pretty fast...

Not to mention that a decent, current broadband connection readily available today is on the lower end of what's acceptable for reasonable movie downloads as Andrew mentioned.

[Andrew M Ward]

Well it probably wont' be so much of a "can we do it" as a "will we do it". I just don't think it makes business sense. I think physical media is just too lucrative of a market to justify companies moving away to an IP based market. You have your retail outlets making lots of money on physical media, you're not gonna cut them out without a fight. You have movie studios stamping out DVDs/HD-DVDs/BDs for literally pennies. You have hugely popular companies like Netflix making big profits mailing the things for extremely cheap.

So you can have very cheap physical media, or you can spend billions to upgrade major infrastructure, and both end up with the same result, you get a movie to the consumer. What profit would there be in AT&T or Comcast providing a 100Mbps service to the customer? At the risk of sounding like that old Bill Gates quote, I personally don't see what I could do at my home with more than the 5Mbps or so that I have currently.

I'm sure the day will come where we have 1000Gbps to our cell phones, but I just think high enough speeds to cut out physical media altogether is a long ways off. Not because it can't be done, but because it doesn't make business sense yet.

Yeah.. that whole iTunes thing is a stupid idea.. it'll never work... :rofl:

(It took 3Hrs 12Min to download the Movie "300" and it looks amazing...but you're probably right, I mean you know Paramount and New line are really worried about how Best Buy is going to get along..?)

:Z

[impala454]

Yeah.. that whole iTunes thing is a stupid idea.. it'll never work... :rofl:

I didn't say it was a stupid idea or that it wouldn't work. I just said I believe it's still a long ways off. For sure a long ways off before it completely overtakes physical media. A 3MB iTunes song vs a 30GB HD movie download is quite a difference. In speed both at the consumer level and at the provider level.

(It took 3Hrs 12Min to download the Movie "300" and it looks amazing...but you're probably right, I mean you know Paramount and New line are really worried about how Best Buy is going to get along..?)

:Z

It takes me about 15 minutes to drive to the store and purchase or rent it . Besides, how big was that file? Assuming around ~20GB that's closing in on 2MB/s (16mbps connection??). That is most definitely not the typical home user's speed. So now it's a discussion of:

1. getting ISPs to upgrade service to allow speeds > 50-100Mbps + getting the home consumer to pay more for a faster connection just for movies (what other benefit does J6P get out of a 50Mbps connection vs 5?) + a computer/device which will play the movie + getting the studios to approve of some type of DRM (this alone will take 10 years) + the movie download itself.

vs.

2. home consumer purchases a hdm player + purchase/rent hdm discs

So if #1 is the case and you think it's coming soon, what is the incentive for the ISPs and/or these practically non-existent (lol "vongo?") online movie providers to invest massive amounts of money in new equipment? Personally, I don't see #1 happening for at least 10 years. I don't see HDM, DVD, or even CD going away in that time span.

[aud19]

So if #1 is the case and you think it's coming soon, what is the incentive for the ISPs and/or these practically non-existent (lol "vongo?") online movie providers to invest massive amounts of money in new equipment? Personally, I don't see #1 happening for at least 10 years. I don't see HDM, DVD, or even CD going away in that time span.

Becuase the costs involved compared to the profits are minimal as I mentioned earlier. I'd wager a guess you'll be seeing the Blockbusters and Netflix of the world, cable/phone/data providers starting them up if not the studios themselves. I'd also guess that it would be no more expensive than Blockbuster opening and staffing stores or to a lesser extent Netflix warehousing/staffing wherever they store and ship their movies from.

No physical media isn't going to disappear completely by 2010 but laserdiscs were a niche market for a good few years before DVD's came along. IMO that's where physical HD media is destined to remain. over the next 5-10 years on-demand media will start to take over with SD-DVD maintaining the lion's share of the market until it does and HD media being a footnote.

[Andrew M Ward]

Becuase the costs involved compared to the profits are minimal as I mentioned earlier. I'd wager a guess you'll be seeing the Blockbusters and Netflix of the world, cable/phone/data providers starting them up if not the studios themselves. I'd also guess that it would be no more expensive than Blockbuster opening and staffing stores or to a lesser extent Netflix warehousing/staffing wherever they store and ship their movies from.

No physical media isn't going to disappear completely by 2010 but laserdiscs were a niche market for a good few years before DVD's came along. IMO that's where physical HD media is destined to remain. over the next 5-10 years on-demand media will start to take over with SD-DVD maintaining the lion's share of the market until it does and HD media being a footnote.

Well said...
Standard DVD sales are still going up (crazy but true)
This is not a discussion about quality it's about consumer patterns and consumer expectations... Most 99% of all consumers are thrilled with the quality of standard DVD... and when asked don't understand why they should buy another player with a new disc format when they are surrounded by content (cheap content) that they are thrilled with...

Part 2
you can drive to the store and get pizza too, but delivery Pizza seems to be fairly successful...

these things will happen:
Drives will get faster and smaller and cheaper
Cable Network speeds will get better as Multiplexing and QAM (Quadrature Amplitude Modulation) goes from 16 to 32 to 64 to 128 to 256... just like processor speeds...

:W