HTG official High Definition high octane DVD format war, the aftermath

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  • impala454
    Ultra Senior Member
    • Oct 2007
    • 3814

    Originally posted by aud19
    Becuase the costs involved compared to the profits are minimal as I mentioned earlier.
    But what profit is there for the ISPs? That's what I was saying, I know there's profit in it for the studios/blockbusters/whatever, but what's the incentive for AT&T or Qwest or whoever to spend the billions it will take to upgrade their core equipment all the way to the consumer? Companies don't upgrade equipment like that until the last possible second, because they always need to go "over the top" to make it as future proof as possible.

    Originally posted by aud19
    No physical media isn't going to disappear completely by 2010 but laserdiscs were a niche market for a good few years before DVD's came along. IMO that's where physical HD media is destined to remain.
    I don't know though I don't recall seeing a lot of laser discs & players in places like Walmart... and there wasn't that much of a PQ jump with laserdisc. They had a clearer picture, but were still displayed on your standard TV. I think since we have people catching on to HDTV, it will drive the HDM market.

    Originally posted by aud19
    over the next 5-10 years on-demand media will start to take over with SD-DVD maintaining the lion's share of the market until it does and HD media being a footnote.
    Well heck, 10 years is about as long as we've had DVD in the mainstream right? If HD media hits the mainstream and is around that long, I'd call it a success :T. Although I have both BD & HD-DVD now, I still think we'll have to have one unified format before HDM hits the mainstream. But for HD on-demand to hit the mainstream, you have to have boxes/HTPCs capable of downloading and playing the content in the consumer's home + the bandwidth to get them the content. Sorry to be so hardheaded :B but it just doesn't seem that feasible anytime soon.

    Another thing just to throw out there, 10 years from now no doubt we'll start seeing stuff like 4K in the home, with movies probably pushing several hundred GB in size. I'm sure physical media will keep up, but it'll be interesting to see if bandwidth keeps up.
    -Chuck

    Comment

    • impala454
      Ultra Senior Member
      • Oct 2007
      • 3814

      Originally posted by Andrew M Ward
      Most 99% of all consumers are thrilled with the quality of standard DVD... and when asked don't understand why they should buy another player with a new disc format when they are surrounded by content (cheap content) that they are thrilled with...
      But if you go back a couple of years, those same 99% would tell you they're fine with the quality of standard TV, now that number is going down.

      Originally posted by Andrew M Ward
      Cable Network speeds will get better as Multiplexing and QAM (Quadrature Amplitude Modulation) goes from 16 to 32 to 64 to 128 to 256... just like processor speeds...

      :W
      But cable network speeds don't get upgraded for free. And what is the incentive to for the cable operators to provide faster speeds?
      -Chuck

      Comment

      • Chetk
        Senior Member
        • May 2004
        • 247

        Can we move the discussion of downloaded media to another thread? This one is for BD vs. HD-DVD. Not BD vs. HD-DVD vs. IPTV.

        Thanks!

        Comment

        • aud19
          Twin Moderator Emeritus
          • Aug 2003
          • 16706

          Originally posted by impala454
          But what profit is there for the ISPs? That's what I was saying...
          There's already at least 2 of the USA's largest data companies rolling it out in a pretty substantial manner, obviously they see a business case and profit for it

          Chet, I believe you may have a point, though the subjects are also all obviously linked together... but I'll look in to it with the staff
          Jason

          Comment

          • impala454
            Ultra Senior Member
            • Oct 2007
            • 3814

            Originally posted by Chetk
            Can we move the discussion of downloaded media to another thread? This one is for BD vs. HD-DVD. Not BD vs. HD-DVD vs. IPTV.

            Thanks!
            BD sucks HD-DVD rules! :rofl: :B

            JK
            -Chuck

            Comment

            • impala454
              Ultra Senior Member
              • Oct 2007
              • 3814

              Originally posted by aud19
              There's already at least 2 of the USA's largest data companies rolling it out in a pretty substantial manner, obviously they see a business case and profit for it
              Well I guess I'll believe it when I see it... I hate that I live in the 4th largest city in the country and 5Mbps is the fastest connection I can get in my home.
              -Chuck

              Comment

              • aud19
                Twin Moderator Emeritus
                • Aug 2003
                • 16706

                Originally posted by impala454
                Well heck, 10 years is about as long as we've had DVD in the mainstream right? If HD media hits the mainstream and is around that long, I'd call it a success :T.
                That's the problem, IMO it's destined to be not more than a niche player for the next 10 years. SD-DVD is still going to be top dog for 5+ years according to every forecast I've seen and if they're lucky, BOTH HD formats will be lucky to get anywhere close to 1/2 of SD-DVD's market share. By then IPTV will have further infiltrated and become more and more accepted and continue to expand. The music industry has already shown that's the direction of media delivery...there's no stopping it.

                Another note, besides the greater bandwidth of future networks, meshing of servers and users to download files more rapidly and with less required infrastructure for the media supplier, there's also the likelihood that the format used will be similar to some current streaming media that allows playback to begin prior to the entire file being downloaded. All of these things add up to pretty easy and quick access by simply using multiple existing technologies/methods. There's no great leap here that you guys seem to think there needs to be, more of a coordinated skip.
                Jason

                Comment

                • Ovation
                  Super Senior Member
                  • Sep 2004
                  • 2202

                  The stickler will be "multiple viewings". There are already constrictions for downloadable music and it will be worse, much worse, for films. Not to mention quality. I have yet to buy a single downloadable piece of music and until full lossless quality is available for the music that interests me, that won't change.

                  I want HD content that is at least as good as my current HD cable (and, frankly, I expect considerably better from my HD DVDs). Downloadable movies that can offer that for a ONE TIME fee (after which I can will be able to use the film where I want, when I want without interference with at least the same flexibility and portability that DVDs currently provide) may entice me. But if I have to sacrifice PQ with a download, I'll buy the disc, thanks.

                  Comment

                  • Andrew M Ward
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2005
                    • 717

                    Originally posted by Ovation
                    The stickler will be "multiple viewings". There are already constrictions for downloadable music and it will be worse, much worse, for films. Not to mention quality. I have yet to buy a single downloadable piece of music and until full lossless quality is available for the music that interests me, that won't change.

                    I want HD content that is at least as good as my current HD cable (and, frankly, I expect considerably better from my HD DVDs). Downloadable movies that can offer that for a ONE TIME fee (after which I can will be able to use the film where I want, when I want without interference with at least the same flexibility and portability that DVDs currently provide) may entice me. But if I have to sacrifice PQ with a download, I'll buy the disc, thanks.
                    But you're not "the average consumer" ... by a long stretch 8O

                    Comment

                    • Andrew M Ward
                      Senior Member
                      • Apr 2005
                      • 717

                      Originally posted by impala454
                      But if you go back a couple of years, those same 99% would tell you they're fine with the quality of standard TV, now that number is going down.


                      But cable network speeds don't get upgraded for free. And what is the incentive to for the cable operators to provide faster speeds?

                      My point is: Regular old DVD sales are still sky-rocketing with growth projected for a long time...

                      HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are but "blips" on the road map to downloaded Movies stored on ones own drive system...

                      see below: Movie Sellers (Paramount / New Line / DreamWorks / Pixar etc...)

                      Summary: 53% of all US households now subscribe to broadband, according to Leichtman Research Group. Internet use is strongly tied to income. For US households with annual incomes above $75,000, 92% subscribe to an Internet service. Among active Internet users, 82.2% subscribe to broadband, up over 10 percentage points from last year.

                      the target market: 100 million US Citizens ready to push the "download now" button for the low low price of $12.99

                      No packaging costs no payment to the Chinese Disc pressing company no distribution costs no problem....

                      Sure there are road blocks... (Hurdles really) but why in the world would anybody in this industry target anything lower on their business model radar..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                      Comment

                      • George Bellefontaine
                        Moderator Emeritus
                        • Jan 2001
                        • 7637

                        Well, no downloaded stuff for me. I'm a collector( I replay many many titles consistently ) and I will eventually be collecting HD DVD/Bluray right along with standard dvd. Half the fun of collecting is looking at released titles in the stores. You never know what little nuggets you're going to find.

                        As for renting, well the same applies. I love to browse and look at the pretty covers.
                        My Homepage!

                        Comment

                        • impala454
                          Ultra Senior Member
                          • Oct 2007
                          • 3814

                          Originally posted by aud19
                          That's the problem, IMO it's destined to be not more than a niche player for the next 10 years. SD-DVD is still going to be top dog for 5+ years according to every forecast I've seen and if they're lucky, BOTH HD formats will be lucky to get anywhere close to 1/2 of SD-DVD's market share. By then IPTV will have further infiltrated and become more and more accepted and continue to expand. The music industry has already shown that's the direction of media delivery...there's no stopping it.

                          Another note, besides the greater bandwidth of future networks, meshing of servers and users to download files more rapidly and with less required infrastructure for the media supplier, there's also the likelihood that the format used will be similar to some current streaming media that allows playback to begin prior to the entire file being downloaded. All of these things add up to pretty easy and quick access by simply using multiple existing technologies/methods. There's no great leap here that you guys seem to think there needs to be, more of a coordinated skip.
                          Well I think we could go 'round and 'round with this forever... I personally just don't feel that the bandwidth will be there. For the same reason I cannot get anything faster than a 5Mbps connection right now. There are companies out there that have been offering 30Mbps FTTH connections for years now, and yet I live in a major city and still cannot even get one if I wanted to. Not to mention that those connections still cost over $100/mo. It's just not taking off, the general consumer is satisfied with what they have, and have no reason to pay more for a faster connection. They can get their iTunes, browse ebay, and read their email just fine. 30Mbps doesn't offer them anything extra. If you told them they could download/stream movies with a faster connection, they'd just tell you they use netflix or go to a B&M store to rent movies and have no need to download them. Not to mention they'd have no clue how to get the movie onto their TV to watch.
                          -Chuck

                          Comment

                          • impala454
                            Ultra Senior Member
                            • Oct 2007
                            • 3814

                            Originally posted by Andrew M Ward
                            My point is: Regular old DVD sales are still sky-rocketing with growth projected for a long time...

                            HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are but "blips" on the road map to downloaded Movies stored on ones own drive system...

                            see below: Movie Sellers (Paramount / New Line / DreamWorks / Pixar etc...)

                            Summary: 53% of all US households now subscribe to broadband, according to Leichtman Research Group. Internet use is strongly tied to income. For US households with annual incomes above $75,000, 92% subscribe to an Internet service. Among active Internet users, 82.2% subscribe to broadband, up over 10 percentage points from last year.
                            But current broadband isn't good enough for HD. How many of those 82% have some 1.5Mbps DSL? How many have a 5Mbps, but really only get 1? \

                            Originally posted by Andrew M Ward
                            the target market: 100 million US Citizens ready to push the "download now" button for the low low price of $12.99
                            Right, but what happens to the current infrastructure when 100 million people click that button at the same time? What happens when all those people who barely use 10% of their alloted bandwidth peg it to 100%?

                            Originally posted by Andrew M Ward
                            No packaging costs no payment to the Chinese Disc pressing company no distribution costs no problem....
                            I don't think these costs are a factor. When I can buy a blank DVD for $0.10, what do you really think it costs a studio to manufacture DVDs vs the profit they take?

                            People want the physical item that they purchased. "But what about iTunes!": Music is different than movies. People listen to music while jogging, driving, sitting at their desk at work, etc. Music is a background task to most people. Watching movies is different, the movie is the focus of your attention. People have no need to take movies with them everywhere they go.
                            -Chuck

                            Comment

                            • Chris D
                              Moderator Emeritus
                              • Dec 2000
                              • 16877

                              So what the heck? HD-DVD had that HUGE surge in movie purchases out of the blue, and now HD-DVD is tanking! http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/ Like I said, I haven't seen any HD-DVD sales that would explain that big surge. Perhaps it was that big Wal-Mart HD-DVD player sale, and new player owners buying a bunch of titles, and now that it's over, sales have dropped off?

                              This is one I can't explain.
                              CHRIS

                              Well, we're safe for now. Thank goodness we're in a bowling alley.
                              - Pleasantville

                              Comment

                              • Ovation
                                Super Senior Member
                                • Sep 2004
                                • 2202

                                Originally posted by George Bellefontaine
                                Well, no downloaded stuff for me. I'm a collector( I replay many many titles consistently ) and I will eventually be collecting HD DVD/Bluray right along with standard dvd. Half the fun of collecting is looking at released titles in the stores. You never know what little nuggets you're going to find.

                                As for renting, well the same applies. I love to browse and look at the pretty covers.
                                One could argue you can do the same thing (and find even more "nuggets" by browsing online stores. However, at the end of the day, the player/display model will stay ahead, by a large margin, of the HTPC/display model for the average consumer. And while super-duper hi-speed broadband may make it to the urban centres in under a decade, it won't be in smaller centres and rural areas for quite some time. Netflix and others, however, are already there for rentals and Amazon and others for sales.

                                Comment

                                • impala454
                                  Ultra Senior Member
                                  • Oct 2007
                                  • 3814

                                  Some of those stats look a little strange... Amazon.com average price for BD is $43??!? and $51 for HD-DVD??!? I suppose that includes box sets... which makes those averages a little misleading. And what does that eproductwars.com sales rank mean? Not dogging your source just tryin to figure it out.

                                  I don't think it was the walmart sale that did it... if you expand those graphs to 30 days you see that the HD-DVD sales boost was last week, not that first week of November when the walmart sale was.
                                  -Chuck

                                  Comment

                                  • aud19
                                    Twin Moderator Emeritus
                                    • Aug 2003
                                    • 16706

                                    Originally posted by Ovation
                                    One could argue you can do the same thing (and find even more "nuggets" by browsing online stores. However, at the end of the day, the player/display model will stay ahead, by a large margin, of the HTPC/display model for the average consumer. And while super-duper hi-speed broadband may make it to the urban centres in under a decade, it won't be in smaller centres and rural areas for quite some time. Netflix and others, however, are already there for rentals and Amazon and others for sales.
                                    The majority of people, and particularly people with money live in major urban areas. The small percentage of people that live in "the sticks" AND have any interest beyond SD-DVD/TV is a pretty small slice of market share to worry about. I can guarantee you the studios aren't worried about all 5 of you :lol:
                                    Jason

                                    Comment

                                    • Ovation
                                      Super Senior Member
                                      • Sep 2004
                                      • 2202

                                      I live in suburban Montreal, so I'm not personally concerned. : However, I am with the sceptics about the much faster internet connections needed to satisfy a downloadable hi-def media alternative. Unless they start subsidizing it far more than now, it will remain a marginal slice of overall internet users. And the HTPC nightmare (and for the average person, nightmare doesn't begin to cover it) is NOT going to displace the standalone player as the primary way to watch movies.

                                      And, to bring it back a little on topic, I don't see the "format war" as a bad thing. Gamers cope well with multiple formats. And the competition has driven down player prices.

                                      Comment

                                      • aud19
                                        Twin Moderator Emeritus
                                        • Aug 2003
                                        • 16706

                                        Originally posted by Ovation
                                        And the HTPC nightmare (and for the average person, nightmare doesn't begin to cover it) is NOT going to displace the standalone player as the primary way to watch movies.
                                        Just to clear things up a home-built HTPC won't be necessary, the "HTPC's" being supplied to users via their cable/satellite providers will work just fine... I believe they're more commonly known as DVR's/PVR's Will that suffice for a stand alone player replacement?

                                        And remember you guys have to quit thinking of these files downloading from one singular server. It will be an organized web of servers and quite possibly even utilizing users STB's in a Bit Torrent like setup where you'll be getting pieces of the files from multiple servers and your neighbours and them from you. Infrastructure for that is more software than hardware based and hence very easy AND affordable and a LOT less reliant on one server having enough bandwidth to feed thousands of homes. I'll see if I can find an article that explains it far better than I ever could.

                                        Edit:

                                        Came across this interesting tibit while looking for that other article:

                                        [Some excerpts from Forbes magazine article. Move is another nail in the coffin for traditional video delivery systems like cable TV and IPT...
                                        Jason

                                        Comment

                                        • Chetk
                                          Senior Member
                                          • May 2004
                                          • 247

                                          Originally posted by Chetk
                                          Can we move the discussion of downloaded media to another thread? This one is for BD vs. HD-DVD. Not BD vs. HD-DVD vs. IPTV.

                                          Thanks!
                                          I guess not.

                                          Comment

                                          • impala454
                                            Ultra Senior Member
                                            • Oct 2007
                                            • 3814

                                            Originally posted by aud19
                                            Just to clear things up a home-built HTPC won't be necessary, the "HTPC's" being supplied to users via their cable/satellite providers will work just fine... I believe they're more commonly known as DVR's/PVR's Will that suffice for a stand alone player replacement?
                                            So what happens after I've purchased 200 movies, then my cable/sat provided DVR breaks?

                                            Originally posted by aud19
                                            And remember you guys have to quit thinking of these files downloading from one singular server. It will be an organized web of servers and quite possibly even utilizing users STB's in a Bit Torrent like setup where you'll be getting pieces of the files from multiple servers and your neighbours and them from you. Infrastructure for that is more software than hardware based and hence very easy AND affordable and a LOT less reliant on one server having enough bandwidth to feed thousands of homes. I'll see if I can find an article that explains it far better than I ever could.
                                            Right I understand what you're saying, that could help the provider side, but a) I don't see how you could have a paid service based on P2P. b) it still doesn't change anything on the consumer end. You still only have your pipe and its bandwidth, no matter whether you're downloading from 35 different people or from 1.
                                            -Chuck

                                            Comment

                                            • impala454
                                              Ultra Senior Member
                                              • Oct 2007
                                              • 3814

                                              Originally posted by Chetk
                                              I guess not.
                                              There really hasn't been any interesting news lately... I think a lot of people are going dual format and the "war" atmosphere is dying down. The formats are so similiar it just boils down to a matter of movie selection. And lets face it, the movie selection currently sucks. I don't think the "war" will get heated again until we start getting stuff like Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, Gladiator, Braveheart, etc on HDM.
                                              -Chuck

                                              Comment

                                              • Ovation
                                                Super Senior Member
                                                • Sep 2004
                                                • 2202

                                                Originally posted by aud19
                                                Just to clear things up a home-built HTPC won't be necessary, the "HTPC's" being supplied to users via their cable/satellite providers will work just fine... I believe they're more commonly known as DVR's/PVR's Will that suffice for a stand alone player replacement?
                                                I have an HD PVR. In fact, I have two. But I like to KEEP the movies I buy and, on occasion, take them along on a trip. I'm not likely to carry my PVR with me. And movies "on demand" with my cable provider are only accessible for 24 hours. When I rent a movie, I always take one that I can have for at least seven days (usually get three for the week and even then, I don't always have time to watch them all). But even if I concede that an "on demand" film is something I would order just before watching it, it does not do anything for my desire to KEEP films and take them with me.

                                                Comment

                                                • aud19
                                                  Twin Moderator Emeritus
                                                  • Aug 2003
                                                  • 16706

                                                  Originally posted by Chetk
                                                  I guess not.
                                                  It's still being discussed. The mods are having just as much difficulty deciding on seperating it or not :lol:
                                                  Jason

                                                  Comment

                                                  • aud19
                                                    Twin Moderator Emeritus
                                                    • Aug 2003
                                                    • 16706

                                                    Originally posted by Ovation
                                                    I have an HD PVR. In fact, I have two. But I like to KEEP the movies I buy and, on occasion, take them along on a trip. I'm not likely to carry my PVR with me. And movies "on demand" with my cable provider are only accessible for 24 hours. When I rent a movie, I always take one that I can have for at least seven days (usually get three for the week and even then, I don't always have time to watch them all). But even if I concede that an "on demand" film is something I would order just before watching it, it does not do anything for my desire to KEEP films and take them with me.
                                                    You'll have the ability to "rent" (say a 24 hour window to watch something) or "purchase" (left available on your HD playable as long as you like) VOD as you like and as for taking things with you that's merely a matter of DRM and transferring files to portable players etc. I don't see why they couldn't offer different "rental lengths" in the DRM based on pricing or being an older, less desirable film similar to the current rental format.

                                                    Originally posted by impala454
                                                    So what happens after I've purchased 200 movies, then my cable/sat provided DVR breaks?
                                                    DRM could allow some sort of back up. Or if your SP is responsible for the box they would have to replace them free of charge. They would have records of everything you've purchased or rented that was still eligible to view. I could ask you the same thing about if someone breaks in to your house and steals your physical media or a disc gets scratched and is no longer playable, what then?
                                                    Jason

                                                    Comment

                                                    • impala454
                                                      Ultra Senior Member
                                                      • Oct 2007
                                                      • 3814

                                                      DRM has been a nightmare so far, even for music. If someone breaks into my house and steals something, it gets replaced by my insurance. If a disc gets scratched that's my fault. But this brings up some other interesting problems. What happens when I purchase 100 movies, and then move to some other cable provider's area? What if I want to switch to satellite? What happens when I want to take a movie over to a buddy's house? Or sell old movies I dont watch anymore? What if I want to watch a movie in the bedroom? Would we really have to have an internet connected (wired of course, wireless doesnt have the speed), DRM enabled HD cable/sat box everywhere we wanted to watch one of the movies we purchased?
                                                      -Chuck

                                                      Comment

                                                      • aud19
                                                        Twin Moderator Emeritus
                                                        • Aug 2003
                                                        • 16706

                                                        DRM needs to be incredibly improved. Not denying that but everyone, including the studios knows that and from what I know is working to get usable, properly implemented versions out. The problem with the current generation is that it was designed more around paranoia and getting media to market quickly than usability. But yes it needs work. But as we all know technology does not stand still. In 5 years I bet we can't even imagine how much TV/media has changed.

                                                        As for the STB's on every TV, that's no different than today (or TV's with appropriate cable cards) I'd wager you've have one "main" STB/server model and you would have smaller client boxes for the other tv's.

                                                        Here's some of the links I mentioned. The first talks about the Bit-Torrent style "mesh" I mentioned earlier:






                                                        a white paper:
                                                        Jason

                                                        Comment

                                                        • Ovation
                                                          Super Senior Member
                                                          • Sep 2004
                                                          • 2202

                                                          I don't disagree that the path you suggest will be the dominant one (and that most of my current objections will have been worked out eventually). However, I just don't see it happening satisfactorily in the timeframe you describe. I see it in ten years, not 3 to 5.

                                                          Comment

                                                          • Chris D
                                                            Moderator Emeritus
                                                            • Dec 2000
                                                            • 16877

                                                            Okay, BACK TO THE ACTUAL TOPIC--- the format wars...

                                                            for impala who asked, the eproductwars website is Amazon's site that has tracked how their sales of BD media have compared to HD-DVD media. You can see their data all the way back to the beginning of the format wars. Interesting how it's gone this way and that.
                                                            CHRIS

                                                            Well, we're safe for now. Thank goodness we're in a bowling alley.
                                                            - Pleasantville

                                                            Comment

                                                            • aud19
                                                              Twin Moderator Emeritus
                                                              • Aug 2003
                                                              • 16706

                                                              Originally posted by Ovation
                                                              I don't disagree that the path you suggest will be the dominant one (and that most of my current objections will have been worked out eventually). However, I just don't see it happening satisfactorily in the timeframe you describe. I see it in ten years, not 3 to 5.
                                                              Well I did say 5-10 years. And like I said both HD-DVD and BD are still forecast to be bit players to SD-DVD in that time frame. Hence IMO neither has any real, long term legs. So my answer to the format war is neither, I'm waiting for the actual long term answer instead of investing in this generations laser disc player.
                                                              Jason

                                                              Comment

                                                              • Ovation
                                                                Super Senior Member
                                                                • Sep 2004
                                                                • 2202

                                                                Originally posted by aud19
                                                                Well I did say 5-10 years. And like I said both HD-DVD and BD are still forecast to be bit players to SD-DVD in that time frame. Hence IMO neither has any real, long term legs. So my answer to the format war is neither, I'm waiting for the actual long term answer instead of investing in this generations laser disc player.
                                                                Laserdisc lasted 20 years (and I have an acquaintance who still has about 5000--not a misprint). If the HDM discs averaged 50$/disc and players were all at 1000$ and up, then I would wait quite a while. But prices are reasonable enough (and will drop some more) that I can get into at least some HDM. Of course, I freely admit to being in the DVD-A/SACD camps as well and I still buy them. No one has to join a "niche", but being "niche" does not mean valueless.

                                                                Comment

                                                                • impala454
                                                                  Ultra Senior Member
                                                                  • Oct 2007
                                                                  • 3814

                                                                  Originally posted by aud19
                                                                  Well I did say 5-10 years. And like I said both HD-DVD and BD are still forecast to be bit players to SD-DVD in that time frame. Hence IMO neither has any real, long term legs. So my answer to the format war is neither, I'm waiting for the actual long term answer instead of investing in this generations laser disc player.
                                                                  I guess we just end up at semantics then... because 5-10 years IMHO is definitely a long term solution in todays CE world. How long will LCD TVs or DLP projectors or HDMI be around as the norm? Heck, DVD has only been big for 10 years. HDM has most definitely taken a larger hold than Laserdisc. It's the next logical step and whether its Blu-ray, HD-DVD, or some other format, it's pretty much inevitable that some new disc format will succeed DVD. 4.7GB just isn't big enough, just like 700MB wasn't big enough. Downloadable content may get bigger as an option, but it won't be taking over physical media. There's too many places where people use physical media that they don't want to have to have network connection for.
                                                                  -Chuck

                                                                  Comment

                                                                  • aud19
                                                                    Twin Moderator Emeritus
                                                                    • Aug 2003
                                                                    • 16706

                                                                    In that 5-10 year span DVD will still be King. That's my point. I'm not saying their will be zero physical media 5 year from now, just that it's still going to be mostly DVD. It's not going to be HD-DVD or BD IMO and as DVD slowly wanes, the next logical format to take over will not be physical. If you want to invest in to either or both formats that's fine, I myself own a decent amount of DVD-A discs (and a few SACD's) and enjoy them thoroughly. However I also realize that neither of those formats is destined to be the future of music. One day they may simply be collecting dust if there's nothing left to play them on.

                                                                    Personally I can't see myself investing large amounts of cash re-buying my movie collection for a format I know has no legs. If you choose to that's great, I have no doubt those that do will get a good few years of enjoyment out of them. Just don't expect large portions of the public to join you or consider it to be as long term or widespread of a solution as DVD has and will continue to be.
                                                                    Jason

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • Andrew M Ward
                                                                      Senior Member
                                                                      • Apr 2005
                                                                      • 717

                                                                      Originally posted by impala454
                                                                      Some of those stats look a little strange... Amazon.com average price for BD is $43??!? and $51 for HD-DVD??!? I suppose that includes box sets... which makes those averages a little misleading. And what does that eproductwars.com sales rank mean? Not dogging your source just tryin to figure it out.

                                                                      I don't think it was the walmart sale that did it... if you expand those graphs to 30 days you see that the HD-DVD sales boost was last week, not that first week of November when the walmart sale was.
                                                                      Dead.... Format.... :Z

                                                                      Comment

                                                                      • impala454
                                                                        Ultra Senior Member
                                                                        • Oct 2007
                                                                        • 3814

                                                                        Andrew I'm not sure I understand your comment... ya might wanna elaborate.

                                                                        and Aud... what a sly swapping of subjects from IP vs HDM to DVD vs HDM I never said I thought SD-DVDs would go away or that HDM would take over SD-DVD anytime soon. But HDM is here to stay I'm sorry I just gotta disagree. Maybe it will be a slow rollout, maybe it won't even be HD-DVD or Blu-ray, but large capacity physical media of some type that stores high bit rate video like VC1 will be around for good. Does it mean J6P or even I will re-buy my whole DVD collection in HD? Heck no. I have no desire to go re-buy Dazed n Confused on HD-DVD. But given the choice when I go purchase a new movie, heck yeah I'll buy it in HD.

                                                                        All you have to do to see that this is true is look at the sales figures. If HDM is just a niche that's going to die off like Laserdisc did, how come new releases are hitting sales numbers like Life Free or Die Hard BD did with 100,000 copies sold in the first week? Or Transformers HD-DVD selling 190,000 in its first week? How many times did Laserdisc sell that many in a week? I think it's exactly like you said, people don't want to re-buy their movies, but I think every new big release on BD or HD-DVD will see new records and more new adopters.

                                                                        Not to mention besides all of this that computer storage will help drive which new format takes hold.
                                                                        -Chuck

                                                                        Comment

                                                                        • Andrew M Ward
                                                                          Senior Member
                                                                          • Apr 2005
                                                                          • 717

                                                                          Originally posted by impala454
                                                                          Andrew I'm not sure I understand your comment... ya might wanna elaborate.

                                                                          and Aud... what a sly swapping of subjects from IP vs HDM to DVD vs HDM I never said I thought SD-DVDs would go away or that HDM would take over SD-DVD anytime soon. But HDM is here to stay I'm sorry I just gotta disagree. Maybe it will be a slow rollout, maybe it won't even be HD-DVD or Blu-ray, but large capacity physical media of some type that stores high bit rate video like VC1 will be around for good. Does it mean J6P or even I will re-buy my whole DVD collection in HD? Heck no. I have no desire to go re-buy Dazed n Confused on HD-DVD. But given the choice when I go purchase a new movie, heck yeah I'll buy it in HD.

                                                                          All you have to do to see that this is true is look at the sales figures. If HDM is just a niche that's going to die off like Laserdisc did, how come new releases are hitting sales numbers like Life Free or Die Hard BD did with 100,000 copies sold in the first week? Or Transformers HD-DVD selling 190,000 in its first week? How many times did Laserdisc sell that many in a week? I think it's exactly like you said, people don't want to re-buy their movies, but I think every new big release on BD or HD-DVD will see new records and more new adopters.

                                                                          Not to mention besides all of this that computer storage will help drive which new format takes hold.
                                                                          This thread has gone on so long... I was kind of just being sarcastic... :W

                                                                          Comment

                                                                          • aud19
                                                                            Twin Moderator Emeritus
                                                                            • Aug 2003
                                                                            • 16706

                                                                            Originally posted by impala454
                                                                            Not to mention besides all of this that computer storage will help drive which new format takes hold.
                                                                            Hard drives are too cheap to make them applicable for data storage.
                                                                            Jason

                                                                            Comment

                                                                            • Lex
                                                                              Moderator Emeritus
                                                                              • Apr 2001
                                                                              • 27461

                                                                              I really would like to see media alternatives discussed in more appropriate venues here guys, this IS about HD and BD or BD and HD, not about the alternative that may replace either in a perfect world. ok Jason? LOL
                                                                              Doug
                                                                              "I'm out there Jerry, and I'm loving every minute of it!" - Kramer

                                                                              Comment

                                                                              • impala454
                                                                                Ultra Senior Member
                                                                                • Oct 2007
                                                                                • 3814

                                                                                Originally posted by aud19
                                                                                Hard drives are too cheap to make them applicable for data storage.
                                                                                Well I was referring to optical drives HD vs BD, i.e. +RW discs. Whichever one is adopted quicker on PCs will probably help determine which format outlasts the other on the movie side of things.
                                                                                -Chuck

                                                                                Comment

                                                                                • Hdale85
                                                                                  Moderator Emeritus
                                                                                  • Jan 2006
                                                                                  • 16073

                                                                                  Well so far I'd say that HD-DVD is on more PC's but its still a pretty small number. I'm either going to be picking up the new Samsung combo player or there is a Combo PC drive that does both for under 300.

                                                                                  Comment

                                                                                  • Race Car Driver
                                                                                    Super Senior Member
                                                                                    • Mar 2005
                                                                                    • 1537

                                                                                    BD kickin ass this last week.....
                                                                                    B&W

                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                    • George Bellefontaine
                                                                                      Moderator Emeritus
                                                                                      • Jan 2001
                                                                                      • 7637

                                                                                      At Walmart this am I saw a Chinese make HD DVD player for $199. This is still expensive, considering that Tosh A2s were selling under $200 in the US, but I thought this was interesting and was wondering if this could be the start of more cheaper players coming to the market.
                                                                                      My Homepage!

                                                                                      Comment

                                                                                      • Kevin D
                                                                                        Ultra Senior Member
                                                                                        • Oct 2002
                                                                                        • 4601

                                                                                        Originally posted by George Bellefontaine
                                                                                        At Walmart this am I saw a Chinese make HD DVD player for $199. This is still expensive, considering that Tosh A2s were selling under $200 in the US, but I thought this was interesting and was wondering if this could be the start of more cheaper players coming to the market.
                                                                                        Here's a link to an article:

                                                                                        Venturer HD-DVD Player


                                                                                        Kevin D.

                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                        • impala454
                                                                                          Ultra Senior Member
                                                                                          • Oct 2007
                                                                                          • 3814

                                                                                          Weird... looks a lot like an A2.
                                                                                          -Chuck

                                                                                          Comment

                                                                                          • bmowis
                                                                                            Member
                                                                                            • Oct 2006
                                                                                            • 45

                                                                                            Originally posted by George Bellefontaine
                                                                                            At Walmart this am I saw a Chinese make HD DVD player for $199. This is still expensive, considering that Tosh A2s were selling under $200 in the US, but I thought this was interesting and was wondering if this could be the start of more cheaper players coming to the market.
                                                                                            George,

                                                                                            Did you find these in NS? I've looked in the Wal-Marts in Halifax and New Minas (Annapolis Valley) and couldn't find any.

                                                                                            Brad

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