Will HD DVD win?

[Alaric]

Now that Toshiba has released the HD DVD player well ahead of Sony's BluRay , will the headstart ,combined with lower cost , be enough to sink BluRay?

[David Meek]

It depends on several factors but I don't think that price will initially be one of them. If the Toshiba player is trouble-ridden then that will boost Blu-Ray's chances. Ditto, if there are issues with the media available. However, if everything comes together then this could be a BIG dent in Blu-Ray's chances. It effectively gives HD-DVD sole possession of the high-def market for the next several months and if (a big if here) the HD camp handles it correctly, then they can build a lead in the consumer market that Blu-Ray won't be able to overcome. The one wild card is the library that each camp has dedicated to it. If Blu-Ray can get enough of its exclusive-rights high-draw titles out at the time it releases its first player then it could make up a lot of ground.

Personally, I'm a Blu-Ray fan and I hope it does succeed.

[gianni]

Now that Toshiba has released the HD DVD player well ahead of Sony's BluRay , will the headstart ,combined with lower cost , be enough to sink BluRay?

I hope not.

[Burke Strickland]

Sony came out with Beta HiFi several months before VHS had anything comparable. Look who the winner is now. (DVD :> -- which shows that even winning the battle doesn't necessarily mean winning the war.) So a head start doesn't guarantee "victory".

Burke

[LikeCoiledSteel]

Personally I lean towards Blu-Ray because I oppose anything affiliated with Microsoft, however I hope they both fail. A format war is the dumbest thing an industry can do and will leave no winners. The general public will not care any which way. The first and second generation players will be garbage as was every other format to come along. Both of these formats are already obsolete as another format has emerged to store 100gig/disc.

I will not buy either format until one is dead or they are both integrated on one disk. Remember DTS vs. DD? It is moot now that they pretty much both come on the same disc. Time will tell what happans but it is a big gamble on thier parts. As DVD was light years ahead of VHS, HD & Blu-Ray are better, but if you are Joe Consumer with your HTIB and WalMarr/Best Buy TV, the difference will not be that noticable. Early adoptors and enthusiests make up to little of the buying public.
Steel

[wkhanna]

Bravo!

[Vinny]

however I hope they both fail.

Agree no more to this :T
I hope some small companies which can come up with 200gb disk with no crazy idea of down resolution beat them :twisted:

[cinema bob]

i think that they will both fail for the same reasons that dvd-audio and SACD failed. 99% of the population couldn't care less. most people still watch standard def televisions and listen through the speakers on the tv itself. why will they pay more money for a format that offers them zero.

[peterS]

Personally I lean towards Blu-Ray because I oppose anything affiliated with Microsoft, however I hope they both fail. A format war is the dumbest thing an industry can do and will leave no winners. The general public will not care any which way. The first and second generation players will be garbage as was every other format to come along. Both of these formats are already obsolete as another format has emerged to store 100gig/disc.

I will not buy either format until one is dead or they are both integrated on one disk. Remember DTS vs. DD? It is moot now that they pretty much both come on the same disc. Time will tell what happans but it is a big gamble on thier parts. As DVD was light years ahead of VHS, HD & Blu-Ray are better, but if you are Joe Consumer with your HTIB and WalMarr/Best Buy TV, the difference will not be that noticable. Early adoptors and enthusiests make up to little of the buying public.
Steel

first off Microsoft is in no way affiliated with either technology nor has ANY influence
second, over 100 manufacturers are backing blu-ray, because it is better and offers much more potential for the future where as hd dvd is "maxed out"
that greater potential also drives sales of other products like receivers and tvs that utilize that potential
third, sony will not release any movies they own the rights to on anything other than blu-ray
fourth, they will never be integrated on one disk as they are two different formats and actualy forbid licensing a single unit that does both
fifth, a better comparison would be that to video game systems... the lesson being that you cant make broad generalizations
sixth bestbuy makes most its revenue off dvd's, video games and hd tvs, each being contingent on the other
lastly, everyone in the industry agrees that one format is best for business
i am not so shure i agree but think blu ray will be dominant when made affordable
my prediction is that blu ray will take off if and when ps3 takes off
much as dvd did along with ps2, the timing being years not months though

[Alloroc]

first off Microsoft is in no way affiliated with either technology nor has ANY influence

Small correction. MS is very much involved with HD-DVD.

They are a general member of the HD-DVD Promotion Group. They joined, along with Intel back in October. They are not however, involved or associated in any way with Blu-Ray.

http://www.hddvdprg.com/about/member.html

[George Bellefontaine]

I don't much give a freakin' damn who wins the format war. I intend to wait it out. Stupid no good %$#@*&^ greedy corporations. :M

[Alloroc]

I don't much give a freakin' damn who wins the format war. I intend to wait it out. Stupid no good %$#@*&^ greedy corporations. :M

Hear, hear!, George. Me too......

[peterS]

Small correction. MS is very much involved with HD-DVD.

They are a general member of the HD-DVD Promotion Group. They joined, along with Intel back in October. They are not however, involved or associated in any way with Blu-Ray.

http://www.hddvdprg.com/about/member.html

i made this statement to a rep and was corrected a while back over this very topic
here is what i was told:
'microsofts only reason for making a choice was due to copyright issues and encryption (i wish he elaborated more on that), he also stated that microsoft is an irrelevant player in the industry and even less so in the format "war"'
take it for what it is worth, in his mind there was no way that blu ray will not become the standard... just a matter of when

i think the industry would be best served by allowing/ possitioning hd dvd to bridge the gap between dvd to blu ray, as most of blurays potential isnt even realizable nor needed yet, nor has sony displayed any interest in it as of late, actualy focusing most its brain power on ps3 which i guess has implications on blu-rays success

[peterS]

I don't much give a freakin' damn who wins the format war. I intend to wait it out. Stupid no good %$#@*&^ greedy corporations. :M

blame the average american or at least marketing teams perception of us
blu ray is alive and well in japan.... some of the struggle has been getting it onto a disk that looks like a dvd for us consumers... since we all know there would be riots in the streets if it came any other way

[george_k]

Has sony ever won a format war?

MD, Hi-MD, and I just recently read that they are dropping movie release support for UMD's

PS: I hope bluray wins this one

[peterS]

Has sony ever won a format war?

MD, Hi-MD, and I just recently read that they are dropping movie release support for UMD's

PS: I hope bluray wins this one

i wish sony would support hddvd and the republican party :E

[Alloroc]

The key success factor for HD-DVD and BD-DVD for that matter is - how can they get the hardware deployed to as many homes as quickly as possible with the widest range of media available.

Consumers don't take too well to format wars. DVD was so easily accepted because of that - there was no other format. A branded DVD player for less than €100, DVD in every new PC, PS3 and XBox and every movie released available from their local Blockbuster. And now they're available from their local Megastore or .com site in some cases for less than it costs to rent.

So, what will it take for a format to be accepted. First we have the traditional or, direct method. Where we go out with the intent to buy a dedicated player. IMO, the vast majority of innovators and early adopters that would normally jump and buy a player are out. Why would I buy a player in the next year or two for a €1000 and there's not guarantee of software availability and does that mean I have to go get another? So there is a huge problem there.

The other alternatives is indirect. A piece of technology that just happens to support a particular format. Read the PS3 for BD-DVD and the PC for HD-DVD (possibly also the XBox 360). So to consider MS irrelevant to HD-DVD is just nuts. MS can obviously support both formats and will open up to whatever technology it want to, but for now they choose HD-DVD because, as they say, HD-DVD and what it can do is 'now'(note : that's what THEY say) . Apple will support Bluray, and it will be interesting to see what Sony do with their VAIOs, along with all other IT based Bluray supporters like Dell and HP.

Here's an interesting breakdown in how consumers react when presented with new technology. Note : This picture dramatically changes when the consumer is presented with conflicting technology.

the first 2.5% of the adopters are the "innovators"
the next 13.5% of the adopters are the "early adopters"
the next 34% of the adopters are the "early majority"
the next 34% of the adopters are the "late majority"
the last 16% of the adopters are the "laggards"

One would be served well to remember why the better Betamax failed and VHS won.

And to concur with Vinny's comment about a smaller group with a superior product winning the war, roll on HVD! Now that's my kind of disk.....

[George Bellefontaine]

blame the average american or at least marketing teams perception of us
blu ray is alive and well in japan.... some of the struggle has been getting it onto a disk that looks like a dvd for us consumers... since we all know there would be riots in the streets if it came any other way

The real problem here is royalties. Blue-Ray, Sony gets the royalties. HD-DVD and Toshiba gets the royalties. Corporate greed and the hell with the consumer. :M

[peterS]

The real problem here is royalties. Blue-Ray, Sony gets the royalties. HD-DVD and Toshiba gets the royalties. Corporate greed and the hell with the consumer. :M

the same rep told me that blu-ray was not owned by sony or a sony thing
mearly backed by them although they are a major player.... no idea how acurate it is

[peterS]

well dealing dealing with the average customer (the one who expects me to help them decide between 4 dvd/vhs players priced within $20 of each other for 30 min) i can tell you 1/100 has heard of blu-ray.... of that minority none really knew what they were talking about in terms of tvs either... people take very little effort, are unwilling to educate themselves, and the ones that do are so backwards in what they have read i dont know if they are learning disabled or what the read is so diluted and flawed
from what i see people are much more concerned with getting a "deal" and the image of owning such a product... it is not uncommon for someone to be uninterested in even bringing in hd signal, running hdmi (or any cabling beyond the freebee composit), or upconverting a dvd....
the average person hates the idea of anything other than dvd, as many are just adopting those now.... the average person would not know what they are missing and would rather everything be built into one unit and "works"
:banghead:

[George Bellefontaine]

Correct, Peter, the average Joe could care less about new technology. Once they find it ( DVD, for example) and the deals start, then they buy into it. So it will depend on the early adopters to get things going, and let's face it, most of us here are in that category. Right now there seems to be a mixed bag of who will or who won't buy into either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD here at The Guide. Many, like myself will wait it all out and if that becomes the majority, then high def dvd could fall flat on its kisser. And that would be a crying shame. And if that happens royalties won't matter a damn then to either Sony or Toshiba.

[wildfire99]

I really wanted blue-ray to succeed, since I can see limitations on HD-DVD already, mostly due to storage capacity. However seeing delays in BR players, and the extraordinarily nebulous mechanations going on regarding the PS3, I'm having that familiar feeling that "VHS" is going to win again.

I probably won't wait past July or August to make a platform choice, assuming ANY BR players are even available then. I'm just an early adopter though.

[Alaric]

i wish sony would support hddvd and the republican party :E

:roflmao:

[Alaric]

Has sony ever won a format war?

MD, Hi-MD, and I just recently read that they are dropping movie release support for UMD's

PS: I hope bluray wins this one

Add SACD to the list

[Alaric]

Gee , guys. I was just hoping for some elucidation as this area is pretty far outside my experience. Seems like the fecal matter has struck the oscillating wind generator.

[peterS]

Has sony ever won a format war?

MD, Hi-MD, and I just recently read that they are dropping movie release support for UMD's

PS: I hope bluray wins this one

there was something called the compact disk that they had moderate success with opcorn:

[Alloroc]

there was something called the compact disk that they had moderate success with opcorn:

The CD was jointly developed by Philips and Sony. So it not quite a fully blown victory for Sony there.

The only Sony-only format that I can think of that was universally accepted is the 3.5" floppy disk.

[Snap]

Some one might have already mentioned this, but isn't HD-DVD and Toshiba putting in their DVD players into computers next quarter? I thought I remember reading some place that Dell, and some of the other heavy hitters are already going with the HD-DVD? IMHO if they start showing up in computers accross the world, the HT market is going to follow. No one wants 2 sets of media in their get up. They are going to go with what ever they have already. So if they have HD-DVD in their laptop, they are going to want one for their HT as well. The DVDR's first showed up in PC's and now they are all over the place. So if Toshiba is already putting their HD-DVDs into computers this year, I think Sony might be in a hurt locker. Toshiba is already selling there HD-DVD players they have 2 out right now. one is 499 and the other is 799. I have not seen any one selling Blue Ray yet. But the HD-DVD's are already on the street.

Also..... I think I heard this right, either 2nd qtr or 3rd qtr there will be HD-DVD being released starting at 30 bucks each. I am not sure what movie studios are doing the releasing but that is what I heard. I will do some digging and see if I can find out more details.

http://www.tacp.toshiba.com/hddvd/

There is a BUTT LOAD of DVD's that are being released in HD-DVD. Select HD DVD Titles to see the list of studios and the movies that are comming in HD DVD format.

Darn I liked the Blue Ray too! I say that DV-DVD is going to win.

[Sim reality]

I think HD-DVD is going to win as well...

Given the marginal increase in quality for the average consumer (Look at the perliferation of EDTV) and one of the largest markets for home video is children, the format that will win will be the easiest format to copy (I don't know of may parents rich enough to hand over a $30 store bought copy of "Toy Story" to their 3-4 year old). The film exectutives must not have kids to want to enforce these copy protection schemes...

[peterS]

Some one might have already mentioned this, but isn't HD-DVD and Toshiba putting in their DVD players into computers next quarter? I thought I remember reading some place that Dell, and some of the other heavy hitters are already going with the HD-DVD? IMHO if they start showing up in computers accross the world, the HT market is going to follow. No one wants 2 sets of media in their get up. They are going to go with what ever they have already. So if they have HD-DVD in their laptop, they are going to want one for their HT as well. The DVDR's first showed up in PC's and now they are all over the place. So if Toshiba is already putting their HD-DVDs into computers this year, I think Sony might be in a hurt locker. Toshiba is already selling there HD-DVD players they have 2 out right now. one is 499 and the other is 799. I have not seen any one selling Blue Ray yet. But the HD-DVD's are already on the street.

Also..... I think I heard this right, either 2nd qtr or 3rd qtr there will be HD-DVD being released starting at 30 bucks each. I am not sure what movie studios are doing the releasing but that is what I heard. I will do some digging and see if I can find out more details.

http://www.tacp.toshiba.com/hddvd/

There is a BUTT LOAD of DVD's that are being released in HD-DVD. Select HD DVD Titles to see the list of studios and the movies that are comming in HD DVD format.

Darn I liked the Blue Ray too! I say that DV-DVD is going to win.

to the best of my knowledge toshiba hasnt released there player yet, as it was delayed from the 3/28/06 release date
i have broshures on the pioneer elite blu-ray player... just a matter of time before it is released

i dont know where some of you guys get this idea that its a war or an election
hddvd is going to ride the coat tales of dvd and blu ray will be the future
its just a matter of how long

[George Bellefontaine]

i dont know where some of you guys get this idea that its a war or an election

If you have two different hi-def formats both after the same consumer, how can it not be a war ?

[tec333]

I am definitely going to sit on this one for a while before I buy anything. What is the point of stressing out over this when there is not even that many titles out yet.

Only way I can see myself taking the plunge is if the LG universal player (HD DVD/Blu Ray/DVD player) they announced will be less than $1250. Or any other universal player that will do both for a reasonable price. It will make for a perfect Christmas gift...

I have not bought a DVD in about a year. A year ago I thought this HD DVD vs Blu ray will be sorted out soon and I said to myself I would rather have my collection in high def rather than in DVD format. :M

[Alaric]

to the best of my knowledge toshiba hasnt released there player yet, as it was delayed from the 3/28/06 release date
i have broshures on the pioneer elite blu-ray player... just a matter of time before it is released

i dont know where some of you guys get this idea that its a war or an election
hddvd is going to ride the coat tales of dvd and blu ray will be the future
its just a matter of how long

I got the idea from Toshiba's press release on the date I started this thread. It's kinda what motivated the question.

[Alaric]

short one

Originally Posted by peterS
to the best of my knowledge toshiba hasnt released there player yet, as it was delayed from the 3/28/06 release date
i have broshures on the pioneer elite blu-ray player... just a matter of time before it is released

Yeah-that time would at present be June at earliest-two months behind HD-DVD. 60 days of selling HD-DVD players for $699.00 a pop could amount to a considerable lead. Frequently the "best" doesn't win. The first one to the finish line does. Sony's record ain't the best. Beta or floppy disk , anyone?

[peterS]

I got the idea from Toshiba's press release on the date I started this thread. It's kinda what motivated the question.

:1: for you

[Hdale85]

Well i think i'll buy a ps3 and a HD-DVD player as the ps3 will probably be the cheapest blu ray player out for a while and its multi purpose so if the market goes one way like hd-dvd then i didnt really waste money on the ps3 because its still a gaming console

[George Bellefontaine]

Discussion here is good and there is nothing wrong with different opinions , but let's stay away from sarcasm or any kind of nastiness or I will have to lock the thread.

[Hdale85]

did i say somthing?

[George Bellefontaine]

did i say somthing?

Nope. You're OK. Rather than point fingers, I'm just asking everyone to stand by their opinions in a gentlemanly way.

[Alaric]

I don't know enough to have an opinion

But the gentlemanly way is accepted as the best way.Mea Culpa

[Hdale85]

ok just making sure i have been known to make a mistake a time or two :B though i dont like to admit it heh

[peterS]

Well i think i'll buy a ps3 and a HD-DVD player as the ps3 will probably be the cheapest blu ray player out for a while and its multi purpose so if the market goes one way like hd-dvd then i didnt really waste money on the ps3 because its still a gaming console

i think ps3 will be the determining factor... sony recognizes this and has focused most of its recent energy purely on ps3


sega dreamcast,while released a year prior and dirt cheap games, was a failure because people knew ps2 was superior and they waited
once people had ps2 in the house they began using it as a dvd player as it was the cheapest solution- i recall news stories on this phenomenon

i dont think it will be a market share thing like pc vs mac as hd dvd has no potential for anything beyond todays technology, where as bluray easily stores 1080p and the high rez audio
i think another big factor will be what consumers report says on the issue
its scary how religiously people abide by every word in there... little charts for a dvd player always asking for a model that has been clearanced last year... "but its in last months issue":rofl:

[Alaric]

That's what I was looking for

The 1080p and hi-res audio references are stuff I didn't know anything about! I started this thread for enlightenment , not to start a format war. Very informative stuff. I sympathize with PeterS' dealings with the general public. I tried a career change for 6 months in a chain that sells appliances and cheap audio/video. I even bought a $99 dollar DVD/CD/SACD player-right before I bought my current SACD player. People will buy the worst crap if they think they got "a deal".
Since I have zero use for a ps3 (or 4 or 5) that won't be a deciding factor for me. The only use I would have for the larger storage capability (of Blu-Ray) is nullified by the copyright protection. My current tv tops out at 1080i resolution and my htib (eek!) makes hi-res audio a non-factor. Outside of this forum , I am probably mainstream America. I gotta like HD-DVD's chances with the above qualifiers. The lower cost of admission pretty much seals the deal for me. There are approx. 300 million people in this country and fewer than 8000 people in this forum-there is a reason Bose outsells Krell. (I don't own any Bose-I swear!) That reason is NOT sq or build quality. :W

[Adz]

Now that Toshiba has released the HD DVD player well ahead of Sony's BluRay , will the headstart ,combined with lower cost , be enough to sink BluRay?

I hope not too! Read this guy's opinion.

http://www.dvdreview.com/html/new_format_war.html

[Hdale85]

Hmm the blu ray demo he saw was an animated film.....how often do you see animations that look bad? Just a thought and he uses a 50 dollar dvd player?