IPTV, DL Media, PVR's and other reasons why the "HD Format War" is a moot point.

[Ovation]

Of course, if Vudu were available to us above the 49th parallel, I might be more enthused. I also think that "streaming" content throughout the house to various TVs is something that people who never figured out how to set the clock (never mind programming) on their VCRs will find challenging, at best.

My biggest concern is that "downloaded" material will have the same effect on video content as it has on audio content--less than full res. I'd rather (selfishly and quixotically, I admit) that such options NOT be available in order to better ensure that full res material is available and the norm.

I work online--I teach online courses for a community college--so I'm not "afraid" of the internet or downloads from a technical standpoint. However, my experience with my students, who, ostensibly, are supposed to be comfortable with such an environment, has left me with the strong impression that "downloads" and such represent "work" and they don't want to "work" for their entertainment. As such, they're unlikely to move beyond the standard DVD that has proven so reliable and easy, much less to "downloads" and/or HDM with all the issues that encumber them. I think your vision of the future is correct, but I think it is at least 5-8 years MORE away than you seem to think (judging from your overall posts in various threads). Hell, I'm still waiting for that flying car that I was promised for the year 2000 (and that promise was made in the fifties--plenty of time to develop one).

[aud19]

Well all these services are available now (for the US anyway as you pointed out and unfortunately for you and I we're a pretty small, insignificant and unimportant market sadly). Not 5-8 years away. Yes they have some details that need to be worked out (as does BD...) but I really don't think downloads and BD are as far removed from each other as you'd like to think. BD has a leg up on quality for sure but downloads have a larger variety and I don't think anyone would argue will be the future. I just don't see the logic in hitching my wagon to what is essentially a pre-obsolete format.

[Ovation]

Well all these services are available now (for the US anyway as you pointed out and unfortunately for you and I we're a pretty small, insignificant and unimportant market sadly). Not 5-8 years away. Yes they have some details that need to be worked out (as does BD...) but I really don't think downloads and BD are as far removed from each other as you'd like to think. BD has a leg up on quality for sure but downloads have a larger variety and I don't think anyone would argue will be the future. I just don't see the logic in hitching my wagon to what is essentially a pre-obsolete format.

I know the services are here now. What I think is 5-8 years away is a significant majority of adoption of such services over "old reliable" physical media by the general population. And that has a lot to do with accessibility to the services, the complexity of using the services, the quality of the services and, most important, OWNERSHIP. And while Vudu may allow me to buy a film, it WON'T allow me to take it wherever I want.

Besides, it took at least 5 years after it was introduced for DVD to become dominant and it represented a huge leap over VHS. I don't see 5 years for dominance of "downloads" as so far away. In the meantime, though, I plan to enjoy the best quality HDM has to offer RIGHT NOW. I have VHS, CD, MiniDisc, SD DVD, HD DVD, audio cassette, SACD, DVD-A and I plan a return to vinyl--so BD will just be one more among many.

[impala454]

The problem is, 5-8 years down the road we'll have flash memory cards that can hold several hundred gigs (and probably dirt cheap). IMHO you will always have physical media that can store/transfer way more data than any type of connection. Heck, there are already devices out there (even TVs) with built in media card readers. SD cards & the like are the future IMHO.

[H.T.C]

Hey,ovation,listen to the coast to coast show on late night am radio they have a guest from time to time from mueller (not sure on spelling) industries that has a flying car (so it was said) but because the air-conditioning unit is so expensive it cannot be released for market penetration yet.

I also believe a high speed data and storage cards are the future (always have) they are easily carried to relatives/camping or sitting outside on a deck/porch watching or recording programs.

Except for the spinning cyrstal in the movie "the time machine" and after mini dvds,insert multimedia cards will be the standard.

[Ovation]

If your referring to the kind of cards found in digital cameras and cellphones (a bit like the old Star Trek "tapes"), I agree. I'm not married to 5 inch optical discs but I AM very partial to OWNING stuff I buy and taking it wherever I want to go whenever I want. And it would be very simple to add such card readers to disc players (much like adding USB ports to TVs) to make players that handle multiple formats.

Edit to add: I agree with impala454 (didn't see his post when I wrote mine).

[aud19]

I agree flash drives will be used to transfer/store lot's of downloaded on demand media...is that some middle ground? :lol:

[impala454]

Well just imagine that DVD/Blu-ray shelf condensing down to the size of matchbooks :lol:

[Ovation]

I agree flash drives will be used to transfer/store lot's of downloaded on demand media...is that some middle ground? :lol:

As long as the DRM of the downloaded media is not constructed in such a way as to limit where and how often one can view the content AND the quality is at least equal to current physical HDM media--then yes. :T

[impala454]

Yeah and what are the chances of that? :P

[Hdale85]

-25% chance easy

[aud19]

Another interesting article...they even end with internet speed concerns...just for you guys : :lol:

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9877031-7.html

[Ovation]

Doesn't change my prediction of 5-7 years before this becomes the DOMINANT (equal to current SD DVD and, previously, VHS) paradigm for hi-def content that is at least equal to what we can get with Blu-ray (and, until recently, HD DVD) right NOW. Nor does it address the concern of ownership that is also portable and unrestricted. The technology is certainly available (or very close to being so) but before it becomes DOMINANT, it will take a while. That's all anyone who has "argued against" you has ever said--it will happen, just not "tomorrow morning". And, outside the US and Japan, it will take a LOT longer (witness the slow pace of general HD adoption outside the US and Japan).

Again, be careful of what you wish for as my biggest fear is not the loss of BD (or optical discs in general) but a mass acceptance of "HD-lite" (as has happened with low-res music downloads). I'd rather it take a bit longer for download paradigms to become the norm so that "HD-lite" is NOT a concern.

In the end, your (and others who share the same view) apparent glee at the thought of "downloads" BEFORE the quality is reasonably guaranteed to be there--in other words, the privileging of convenience over quality--is far more disturbing than an eventual move to downloads as the main delivery system for content in general. Did not the music industry model of low-res lossy audio (and lossless audio is so much less bit-hungry than SD video, never mind HD video) raise concerns in your mind? I don't even buy downloaded music (which is easy to do); it will be some time before I buy downloaded video content.

[aud19]

Whoah...I never once said I was "wishing" for this or "gleefull" either. I'm in the same boat as you guys. I want the best quality, for the least money that allows me to do what I want with my media. I do not download music even. I still buy and rip CD's!!

But I'm also not burying my head in the sand trying to pretend that this isn't coming and that LONG before BD has a chance to become dominant over SD-DVD that something along these lines won't begin to take over. I'm just trying to be informative as to the information and options that are out there and will be coming. I personally refuse to sink more money in to what I see is a very limited format (as much as the studios would love me to) and I'm sure, no I know I'm not alone on that.

BD is great and if you have the money to indulge in it's higher quality, by all means enjoy it while you can. But unlike at the introduction of DVD we already know what will be taking over...and it's not a shiny "blue" disc.

[Ovation]

You may not have used those exact words but your tone certainly has suggested a level of underlying disdain for those who are, apparently, "burying [their] heads in the sand" (the very use of such a phrase is indicative of that). I don't mean you disdain the people themselves nor do I take it personally that you don't wish to "go blu". Moreover, I referred to "others who share the same view" (about downloads being the real successor to SD DVD)--some of them have certainly been more forceful in ridiculing the "heads in the sand" crowd.

Ultimately, we disagree on the timing of "the takeover"--and that's fine. I appreciate all the information you put forth but, at least as I understand the purpose of discussion fora, we are free to debate the information and its implications. You see a rapid move to downloads, I see a slower one. One of us will be correct. Doesn't matter at the end of the day (there are more important things to worry about in the grand scheme of life). I think the era of a dominant format is over, actually. I see downloads working for urban dwellers and younger people (say, under 40) as the primary source of content while some form of physical media (discs or flash drive cards) remains the primary source for people over 40 or in rural areas who are several years behind urban dwellers in terms of access to the speed of internet connectivity the latter take for granted (not to mention the world outside the US and Japan). There will be further fragmentation between those who what real HD quality and those who favour convenience--within each camp (physical and download). I see SD DVD and BD (especially as the latter has no hybrid option) co-existing like LP and cassette did for over a decade (I rarely bought pre-recorded cassettes but my best friend in high school didn't even own a turntable) with an eventual turn to flash card media around the time frame where I see downloads being truly the main delivery system (of HD content, not just overall content)--5 to 7 years. Who knows? But hey, if vinyl can make a comeback (though it will never become dominant again), there may yet be life in those "shiny blue discs" after all for some time to come.

[aud19]

I wouldn't go as far as to say I have disdain for BD, just indifference to what I consider a short term, intermediate format.

Some further interesting even-handed articles:

http://www.emedialive.com/Articles/ReadArticle.aspx?ArticleID=13694

http://business.newsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_id=011000CQTTSL

[cxc21]

You get the best price if you can claim the most advanced technology. That drives the business. HDMI is already pronounced dead and will be replaced by display port soon. Although HDMI integration into HT receivers just began and few actually use it. 1080p movie files with lossless audio are really big and even with falling hard drive prices 12GByte/hour will be difficult to support without dedicated media for sometime. I see the point that most people do not have the Computer power to deal with these files because they always buy the cheapest PCs they can find and use it for 5-6 years at least. Macs a more tuned into the media thing but with 5-7% market share it is still a minority. The HT/audio and PC worlds have evolved somewhat separate from each other for many years. It is time that these things merge more efficiently. I am watching and recording TV on a Mac for 10 years first analogue now digital and just use the DVD drive in the Mac. Never bought a separate TV or LCD TV, I always found Computer monitors or LCD projectors sufficient. Having things buffered on a hard drive is so much more relaxing and you can distribute it throughout the house wirelessly. I have no difficulty playing 1080p mpg4 files through an 802n 5Ghz airport network with the latest machines.
I don't get this attempt to make BD player into interactive devices and networked. Sure to be an attempt of extended control and surveillance in the future. Of course this ads to the costs. I just need a BD drive in my Mac/PC.

[impala454]

they even end with internet speed concerns...just for you guys : :lol:

Hey alright, glad to see someone else thought of that

Kinda funny though for them to mention it though, in the same breath as "will be the downfall of blu-ray". She mentions "Comcast's 100Mbps connection which is promised to be a reality by 2009." Yeah... I'll believe it (and be giddy) when I see it.

My whole point isn't that digital downloads wont ever be big. I think it's just the time frame everyone is arguing here. I don't see it overtaking physical media for at least another 8-10 years, if not longer.

The argument seems like something akin to someone telling us right now that "electric cars will be the downfall of combustion engine cars". Well duh, just not anytime soon

[aud19]

Well if I recall paid downloads of movies already exceed the total BD disc sales and I don't see that trend getting better for BD. Do they still need to work on sorting out things like fair use/DRM, improving quality and access speeds. Absolutely. But again a format that's already exceeding BD and in it's infancy.

I've got a 3000kbps download speed at my house, have for years which allows me to dowload files pretty quick plus if you think about it a little pre-planning time to start a movie in say 1/2 hour isn't that bad considering you'd likely spend at least that driving to and from/browsing at a rental store not to mention the energy wasted on fossil fuel etc and 1/2 hour wait times are usually a worst case scenario.

Otherwise until downloads to take over as the dominant format (which could and likely will be 5+ years) DVD will still be the media king. Investing in anything other than those two formats just seems silly to me (and a lot of other people). But for those with the disposable income, enjoy BD in the mean time, it's pretty :T

[impala454]

Well if I recall paid downloads of movies already exceed the total BD disc sales

Where did you see this? And what about HD movies? It would seem comparing SD movie downloads to BD is kinda apples & oranges. I would think if you're comparing downloads with physical media, you'd compare SD Downloads to DVD and then HD Downloads to BD. Make sense?

[aud19]

http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2008/01/19/itunes-enters-into-the-hd-dvd-vs-blu-ray-war-with-bigger-sales/

At the Macworld keynote speech, Steve Jobs pointed out that in the 15-months since the iTunes Store included movies, they have moved 7 million downloads. In the 18-months since HD DVD and Blu-ray went head-to-head, the combine total of disc sales is 6 million.

Notice that's LESS time and JUST Apple, no other services included in that figure and BD/HD-DVD combined sales.

As for the HD/SD thing well I suppose that depends on whether your comparing the media/delivery method or the resolution. As I consider this a discussion of media/delivery method with interest in resolution I'd say it's very relevant

[Ovation]

I think you've hit the crux of the debate. I don't care if SD downloads outstrip HDM by a factor of ten--my only concern is where will I get hi-def in the best quality available and in the most convenient format for me? And downloads AIN'T IT. (Nor are they likely to be for at least 5-7 years: EQUAL to Blu-ray/HD DVD in quality, portable from one player to another, NO DRM regarding playback on players at other addresses--these are NON-negotiable conditions for me and a lot of others interested in HDM, whatever form it takes).

What is relevant is "high definition content" and its delivery systems. The former is NOT a secondary consideration.

[aud19]

Well good or bad to the American buying public and the studio's accounting departments, your opinion and concern IS the minority. That and the downloads aren't all SD, it's a mix of both SD and HD.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/blu-ray-the-future-has-been-delayed/

http://blogs.pcworld.com/staffblog/archives/006883.html

http://moviebankstudios.com/2008/03/02/blu-ray-vs-movie-downloads/

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/01/18/jobs_on_bluray_hddvd/

http://gizmodo.com/385925/hd-dvds-de...-talk-about-em

http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2008/01/19/itunes-enters-into-the-hd-dvd-vs-blu-ray-war-with-bigger-sales/

This guy REALLY doesn't pull any punches :lol: :

http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/05/03/blu-ray-sales-tank-reason

On a good note the more popular/profitable these services become the more incentive for competition and quality/speed increases until we get to the point of indistuishable quality difference so even you poor folks in the minority will be satisfied :T

[aud19]

Great article on the quality of Apple's HD downloads:

http://www.ilounge.com/index.php/art...he-comparison/

What impressed us about the Apple TV HD rental was that the video, despite needing to be sent over the Internet rather than residing comfortably on a DVD or Blu-Ray Disc, exhibited little in the way of motion blur or compression artifacts—it looked as good as could be expected from 720p, which is to say comfortably better than DVD quality, but shy of the best a Blu-Ray Disc can offer on a top TV.

A motion test revealed the heavier artifacting and blurring present in the HD cable version, which on paper should have looked better than the Apple TV and DVD versions, but didn’t.

Because of its cleaner motion and audio, we felt that the HD Apple TV experience was better in both overall audio and video quality than the HD cable experience, and for most users, superior to renting a standard DVD as well.

It’s also worth noting that the Blu-Ray Disc’s biggest video and audio advantages are real, but will be lost on many HDTV users. Since the majority of HDTVs sold before 2007 were not capable of displaying true 1080p output—most were capped at 720p or 1080i—the superior video quality of the Blu-Ray versions of movies won’t be noticeable on such sets, and the difference between the Apple TV and Blu-Ray versions will be less noticeable. If you’re using a TV without the ability to display 1080p video—especially if you don’t have a receiver capable of decoding the Blu-Ray Disc’s DTS-HD signal—an Apple TV rental will be an almost complete substitute for renting the Blu-Ray.

[impala454]

So how many Apple TV units have they sold ?

Methinks the iTunes movie sales are more about people watching a movie on the plane on their iPod rather than replacing their source of movies at home.

[Ovation]

Well good or bad to the American buying public and the studio's accounting departments, your opinion and concern IS the minority. That and the downloads aren't all SD, it's a mix of both SD and HD.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/blu-ray-the-future-has-been-delayed/

http://blogs.pcworld.com/staffblog/archives/006883.html

http://moviebankstudios.com/2008/03/02/blu-ray-vs-movie-downloads/

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/01/18/jobs_on_bluray_hddvd/

http://gizmodo.com/385925/hd-dvds-de...-talk-about-em

http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2008/01/19/itunes-enters-into-the-hd-dvd-vs-blu-ray-war-with-bigger-sales/

This guy REALLY doesn't pull any punches :lol: :

http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/05/03/blu-ray-sales-tank-reason

On a good note the more popular/profitable these services become the more incentive for competition and quality/speed increases until we get to the point of indistuishable quality difference so even you poor folks in the minority will be satisfied :T

No "disdain" in that remark. :roll:

We already KNOW we're in the minority as far as demanding the best available quality. That's no secret to anyone--and it applies to EVERYTHING in the marketplace. Does that mean we should stop demanding the best quality we can get? Certainly not. Does it mean we should endorse "good enough" as a goal? Again, certainly not. Doing so simply reinforces mediocrity--NEVER a good thing.

Clearly we will never agree on this point (and I'm finding the "nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah" tone a bit tiresome). "Good enough" is NOT a desirable goal and it should NOT be promoted--that kind of thinking led to the Dodge Aspen of the late 70s. So, hurray for you--downloads fulfill your wants and needs. The rest of us will enjoy the SUPERIOR quality that is already available and will do so for YEARS before "good enough" catches up. Enjoy you're "HD-lite".

[aud19]

Ok come on...I think you're taking this a little too seriously, it's just an alternate media format not a discussion of opinions on abortion or some similarly touchy subject...if you can't take a little ribbing in good humour well...

And no one's supporting mediocrity, in fact I think you'll see people are pushing for ever better quality with downloads. And as evidenced by the comparison I posted links to last page, Apple's HD downloads are only beat by BD in PQ which is pretty darn good at this stage of the game IMO.

Otherwise I've never argued that BD wasn't higher quality currently, just that it a non-starter format IMO and that downloads will be the future and are already ahead in acceptance of BD as a format which I think I've proven...if you have nothing else to add to that discussion of the actual subject, then feel free to stray from the topic.

[impala454]

I think the AppleTV stuff, iTunes, Vudu, etc are great ideas, and I would probably bite if it was cheaper and I could burn the movies somehow. My buddy here at work uses iTunes and we looked up a few movies just for grins and American Gangster was $14.99. That's the same price as the DVD. Does anyone think iTunes would be as popular as it is now if it only sold full CDs at regular retail prices?

[aud19]

Well like any new format, the more it's accepted and volume goes up, (not to mention the benefits of competition from multiple vendors) the more prices should come down.

I have to assume it will be easier to backup and make the media more portable down the line as well (though Apple does allow some limited forms of this now). I doubt it will be on DVD's etc though. Flash drives or portable HD's would be my guess.

[impala454]

Well like any new format, the more it's accepted and volume goes up, (not to mention the benefits of competition from multiple vendors) the more prices should come down.

Well hopefully that will be the case with blu-ray as well.

[aud19]

Yes, yes, I know it's not HD yet but gain, it's just another step in the right direction with better selection and HD to come.

http://gizmodo.com/389698/first-netf...ited-downloads

[Hdale85]

you haven't seen what the compression looks like yet either.

[impala454]

that's definintely a step in the right direction for streaming movies. the reviewer says the quality is not that great even at high speeds, but like you said, baby steps.

[aud19]

Well I was referring more to the cost and ease...given a bit of time it will all come together.

[aud19]

Apple Premieres Movies on the iTunes Store in Canada:

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2008/06/04itunes_ca.html

CUPERTINO, California—June 4, 2008—Apple® today announced that movies from major film studios including 20th Century Fox, The Walt Disney Studios, Paramount Pictures, Warner Bros. Entertainment, Universal Studios Home Entertainment, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Studios Inc. (MGM), Sony Pictures Television International and Lionsgate and Maple Pictures are now available on the iTunes® Store in Canada (www.itunes.ca).