HTG official High Definition high octane DVD format war, the aftermath

[aud19]

Some people still think laser disc is "viable" fwiw :lol:

[Hdale85]

Netflix has Dolby Digital + which is pretty good imo, it's not as good as lossless but it's not bad either.

[Chris D]

Well, there's a difference between whether it still works, and whether it's a "dead format" or not. I have never owned a laser disc player, but if I did, and had discs that I didn't feel like re-purchasing on DVD/BD/streaming, I'd still use the player in my setup.

I still have my HD-DVD player in my setup. No reason really to repurchase those discs on BD, since they work just fine, and have the same quality in my theater. My HD-DVD player is also the best DVD upscaler-player I have. But obviously, HD-DVD is a DEAD format, just like laserdisc is. No more movies being made on those formats. BD is still going. Streaming is. I do wonder if we'll get any other format before everything eventually does go streaming.

[Hdale85]

I'm kind of doubting we will see another disc format for this type of media, we will likely see some sort of update for 4k movies but I don't really see anything else coming to replace Blu-Ray before streaming is most of the market share. Frankly I kind of doubt Blu-ray will just up and go away as well. I think it'll stick around quite a while for people like you that have poor internet issues that limit your ability to stream, but I feel that production numbers will likely get dropped a ton and the costs of the discs will go up as the market just isn't there compared to how many out there actually do have internet that is perfectly capable of streaming even 4k content.

[Ovation]

Are you saying you have no 1080P display to watch your BD's??. If so, that's a shame because your only getting half the fun of what the medium can do!. Say it ain't so Ovation......say it ain't so???!!!.

I have a 720p projector that gives me an excellent image (resolution is not the sole criterion for a good HD image) and a small 1080p TV (for when I don't want to turn on the PJ) in the cinema room. In my living room, though, it's a plain old SD CRT. Works fine, so in no hurry to replace it. I will be due for a PJ upgrade in a couple of years (if the bulb holds out) and I plan to get something one budget class higher than my current one was in when new. But everything works fine for now.

[Ovation]

I'm kind of doubting we will see another disc format for this type of media, we will likely see some sort of update for 4k movies but I don't really see anything else coming to replace Blu-Ray before streaming is most of the market share. Frankly I kind of doubt Blu-ray will just up and go away as well. I think it'll stick around quite a while for people like you that have poor internet issues that limit your ability to stream, but I feel that production numbers will likely get dropped a ton and the costs of the discs will go up as the market just isn't there compared to how many out there actually do have internet that is perfectly capable of streaming even 4k content.

I suspect BD will become somewhat analogous to vinyl in audio--specialty outfits (like Criterion) will licence individual titles for release in deluxe versions and prices will be at a premium (probably around MSRP for Criterion now, adjusted for inflation), while the mass-released things that are often available at 10$ a pop a few months after release will become exclusively digital "soft" media (either for sale like iTunes is currently or, if the studios really get what they want, available only for PPV via some form of streaming).

[Chris D]

See my thread on new Disney streaming service just released:

http://www.htguide.com/forum/showthread.php?41713-quot-Disney-Movies-Anywhere-quot-Digital-Streaming

[JohnA]

I'm kind of doubting we will see another disc format for this type of media, we will likely see some sort of update for 4k movies but I don't really see anything else coming to replace Blu-Ray before streaming is most of the market share. Frankly I kind of doubt Blu-ray will just up and go away as well. I think it'll stick around quite a while for people like you that have poor internet issues that limit your ability to stream, but I feel that production numbers will likely get dropped a ton and the costs of the discs will go up as the market just isn't there compared to how many out there actually do have internet that is perfectly capable of streaming even 4k content.

Like you, I don't think Blu-Ray is going away anytime soon. And yes I see also it being updated in some way for 4k and to also keep new players compatible with the current version discs. However I do not see online streaming taking over for the masses, some people just don't have or can not get the speeds needed. Some ISP's are money hungry and will start charging fees for excessive use after you go over a set amount for you internet plan you have. Mine, ATT Uverse, already has this type of extra data charge in place. And people like me who dropped cable 30+ years ago, and then SatelliteTV in 2011, (in my case DTV) after having that for 12 years after cable, have no desire now to start paying high data use fees to a ISP to watch movies. And believe it or not, there are still people that probably do not have or only use the internet for things like email and online shopping and have no desire to use it for streaming movies. Every time I go to the grocery store or drugstore, there are also people at the Red Box Kiosk outside those stores renting or returning dics. So as long as they can do their normal shopping and also easily pick up a movie rental on their way out without having to drive to a separate movie rental place like a Blockbuster, the rental business will successfully continue for quite a while, or at least it will for something like Red Box, but the stand alone stores Blockbuster stores I'm not so sure they have much life left.

Not mention I can go to my local library 5 minutes away from me, and use my library card to take out DVD's for free, sure they are limited in what they have available, and they certainly do not have "New Releases Tuesdays", but you also can't beat their free usage for what they do have!

[madmac]

Yep I agree John. Both BD and DVD are not going anywhere, any time soon. The new releases that come out on Tuesdays are not available on Netflix or any 'legitimate' streaming sites currently. As a person that likes to watch the new films out, I am still sold on my Video rental service to see them when they are fresh.

I as well, am a big fan of my library for video and it's free. I've been watching complete TV series stuff which in many cases is better than most new releases that I rent at the video store. No one can dispute the convenience of streaming services like Netflix but they will have to get with the program in terms of getting new releases on their service at the same time as the discs come out in the stores.

[Hdale85]

Well I think streaming is already being used by the masses, if you look at the link I provided streaming services are booming while Blu-ray sales are dropping dramatically. Most people in our country do not have the ISP issues you mention, some do yes which is why I said BD will still be available for people of yours and Chris's situation but I think it's eventually going to be offered in lower production numbers just for those instances where people can't stream.

[aud19]

I'm kind of doubting we will see another disc format for this type of media, we will likely see some sort of update for 4k movies but I don't really see anything else coming to replace Blu-Ray before streaming is most of the market share. Frankly I kind of doubt Blu-ray will just up and go away as well. I think it'll stick around quite a while for people like you that have poor internet issues that limit your ability to stream, but I feel that production numbers will likely get dropped a ton and the costs of the discs will go up as the market just isn't there compared to how many out there actually do have internet that is perfectly capable of streaming even 4k content.

Pretty much this. It will soldier on for a while yet but the mainstream/market leader will be streaming by a country mile. It will become a "niche" product something between DVD-A/SACD and vinyl (without vinyl's sentimental attachment or DJ use to bolster it).

[Ovation]

That niche market will likely be the end result for BD, but I think we're still 2-3 years before it gets that "niche" (and it will be bigger than vinyl is now, as there are far more people who will still have internet "issues" or just want to use a disc player for movies than there are people who have TTs and vinyl discs).

[aud19]

and it will be bigger than vinyl is now...

...and continue to shrink from there.

[Ovation]

...and continue to shrink from there.

In absolute terms, sure. But I think the BD decline will take a while to dip to the current vinyl ceiling (which I don't think will grow much at all). Vinyl's comeback is not nearly as impressive in absolute numbers as the audio press has suggested and BD's decline will not be as precipitous as many are wont to believe. In the end, in audio, video and print, I think there will be multiple co-existing formats for a long, long time to come. If anything, I see the ultimate result as the demise of "ownership" of any audio, video or text (except for those already in people's possession). A fee per use for books, music and video (TV and film) will be the model eventually foisted upon us. I might not live to see that day become dominant, but I'm pretty sure my children will have to deal with that situation at some point.

[Chris D]

Heheheeeee... I just love how revisiting this "bold" prediction every February stirs up the pot. :twisted:

[Hdale85]

But every year we actually are a bit closer to that prediction. The numbers show it

[aud19]

Yup...

[Chris D]

No argument that's the direction we're pointed.

[JohnA]

Most people in our country do not have the ISP issues you mention, some do yes

And more will, once more ISP's decide to start grabbing for more money from the people who transfer a lot of data every month from things like steaming movies. Sooner or later it's going to hit the fan, and people who stream a lot are going to get hit harder in their pocketbooks for doing so. Just about like anything else in the marketplace, many of the ISP's are going to see it as a way to make even more money off people.

[madmac]

And more will, once more ISP's decide to start grabbing for more money from the people who transfer a lot of data every month from things like steaming movies. Sooner or later it's going to hit the fan, and people who stream a lot are going to get hit harder in their pocketbooks for doing so. Just about like anything else in the marketplace, many of the ISP's are going to see it as a way to make even more money off people.

I kinda' disagree with that statement. I think the trend will be opposite. In the not too distant future, Internet data caps will go away altogether. I saw an ad in today's newspaper for unlimited internet for $49 bucks/month. Cell phone plan data caps will steadily increase, and WiFi will be everywhere public. Every City run establishment here in my town has free WiFi (Pools, library, tennis club...etc).

[Hdale85]

I agree, with companies like Google pushing Google Fiber (And there are other companies doing the same) with unlimited gigabit bandwidth I think the trend will be opposite of what you say. I have never had bandwidth caps in Ohio or PA and honestly I don't expect it to happen. They've tried that in many areas and generally it's done nothing but hurt their customer base. Also there are people that are pushing worldwide free wifi (Facebook to name the latest). Facebook just purchased drone technology that has solar powered wifi drones that can fly continuously for 5 years straight. They broadcast wifi and possibly other services. But I don't think cable companies will successfully be able to move to a pay per bandwidth model in modern days of data usage. Look at cellphones for an example, almost all companies are moving to an unlimited data plan (I have one now and it's only $30 a month) where as just a couple years ago you paid for a particular bandwidth package.

[aud19]

Yup, competition and tech advancement will continue to push prices down while service improves...it's how technology works. The more and the faster that happens, the more physical media goes the way of the dodo.

[Chris D]

I do also think that download caps will eventually go away, but that requires structure. And structure EVERYWHERE. As structure increases, it'll also be chased by usage. As capacity grows, people will use more videos, increasingly larger bandwidth that hopefully will accompany higher quality audio and video, increased reliability, etc. Nintendo's latest push for wi-fi is great news for someone in Japan. Again, if somebody in Washington D.C. has no caps and high bandwidth, and perceives that every area of their tiny world has enough internet structure to meet their needs, does not mean the rest of the planet is that way. Someone in Jerusalem doesn't care what that person in D.C. has for capabilities. Doesn't mean everything is sufficient for someone in Kiev. Or Mombasa. Or Shenzen. Or rural Arizona. Or a farm in India. etc, etc. We're getting there. But will all those people have sufficient capabilities next week? Next year? Five years from now? Just because I have enough food on my plate and a grocery store 20 minutes away doesn't mean I can declare that's the case for every other person in the world, and why would anybody possibly need to grow their own food anymore? That's so 20th century.

[Hdale85]

Those people that live in extremely poor and unstructured parts of the world, do you think they really buy blu-rays?

[Chris D]

Some, sure. My point is to remind everyone that the experience of the upper-connected Western world does not equate to what the entire planet has, and there's a whole spectrum. It's not all-or-nothing, that either someone has unlimited fiber networking, or they live with pigs. A nomad in the Gobi desert likely has never heard of VHS, much less DVD or BD or streaming. Probably won't ever care. But you better bet that someone in Kiev knows and cares. Shenzen. Rural Arizona. etc. And ME, in America. Heck, I'm a super tech enthusiast, and even my internet has been tested as being better than 25% of the USA, and I can't do it. No matter how much we want to think that new tech means that current/previous gen tech (i.e. BD) is no longer needed, we just can't impose our own experience on the rest of the world. If we can't even push that on at least one quarter of the USA, do we really think that Mexico is any more prepared to go all streaming with their entertainment? Cuba? Poland? Australia? These places aren't exactly the dregs of the planet, and even if they were, can we just say "eh... anywhere that doesn't have the capability of downtown Tokyo doesn't matter. Nobody has any need for something other than streaming. We declare it's so, and if you can't/won't do it... too bad."

To emphasize my position, I can't wait until streaming technology is the top quality source for every use, and we all have the capability to utilize it. I'm really excited and looking forward to it. That day's coming, and when it does, we may not need anything else. But not in the near future that I can see.

[Hdale85]

Well just because we move to nearly 100% streaming her doesn't mean that those parts of the world can't still have disc production. Would the studios love streaming all over the entire world? Sure, but you better bet they would gladly settle for a flexible plan that allows discs to area's of the world that would be harder to stream.

[JohnA]

I kinda' disagree with that statement. I think the trend will be opposite. In the not too distant future, Internet data caps will go away altogether. I saw an ad in today's newspaper for unlimited internet for $49 bucks/month. Cell phone plan data caps will steadily increase, and WiFi will be everywhere public. Every City run establishment here in my town has free WiFi (Pools, library, tennis club...etc).

Sure plenty of them have unlimited, and many also slow you down after a set amount of data, but it's still unlimited. Unlimited data without constant speeds high enough to flawlessly transfer HD video, is not going to please people if they plan on only streaming videos and not buying physical discs anymore. The ISP's will get like cable companies, and sooner or latter decide to grab more money from their users. After all without counting cell phones, most people only have 2 - 3 different choices on how to get to internet access to their homes. For me it's either through ATT with it's Uverse or their DSL, with either ATT's own DSL service or with something like Earthlink's DSL, but all the DSL hookup is through the phone company. Or with Comcast cable, or via a overpriced Satellite setup. So that is really not a lot of competition, and without that, there is not a lot of reason for one company to drastically undercut the others on pricing

[Hdale85]

John, they can't just do what they want. If they upset the customer enough the customer can easily make them change. Internet is a damn nice thing to have right now.....but you could live with a minimal connection just good enough for email or just a cell phone with a data plan. Honestly though bandwidth capped plans have been on the decline for a while. They were more popular in previous years. There was a couple companies that were still trying to push them but I believe they've been struggling to make any head way with it. I have Time Warner here, they are one of the ones that originally were pushing bandwidth block sales and such and I have full unlimited 50Mbit and have never run into a speed cap at all and I've done TB's of data in a month before.

[JohnA]

Sure you can change, but when you only have 2 or maybe 3 sources to choose from to get internet service, you soon find they all charge about the same, and also have close to the same rules. Around me, for internet access both ATT's Uverse and Cable have just about the same 1 yr introductory rate, but after the year then monthly charge is almost doubles. With Uverse if you don't "bundle" the internet service with a phone service, then it also costs more. With cable internet, it also costs more per month if you don't "bundle" it with a cable TV service. Also with both of them, if you want speeds high enough for reliable HD video service, you pretty much are not going to see it on their lower costs plans in the $50 a month range. And in this area, the little known Chicago IL that some of you may have heard of, and also it's suburbs, caps or data "slowdowns" are definitely alive and well. Sure there is no flat out hit a certain amount and you are shut off, instead it's a use more, pay more penalty.

http://www.att.com/esupport/article.jsp?sid=KB409045&cv=812&_requestid=1343157#fbid=0DwxYC-D2Yh

"How much data is included in my AT&T Internet service?

Residential AT&T High Speed Internet service includes 150 gigabytes (GB) of data each billing period, and residential AT&T U-verse High Speed Internet service includes 250 Gigabytes (GB) of data each billing period. U-verse with Gigapower, where available, includes 1 terabyte (TB) of data each billing period. The data you send and receive each month contributes to your monthly data plan.
Why did AT&T implement this data plan?

AT&T has experienced a dramatic increase in the amount of data that is sent and received over its wireline broadband networks. This dramatic increase is driven primarily by a small fraction of our customers. In fact, the top 2% of customers use about 20% of the total capacity on our network. A single high-traffic user can utilize the same amount of data capacity as 19 typical households. Lopsided usage patterns can cause congestion at certain points in the network, which can slow Internet speeds and interfere with other customers' access to and use of the network."

"What will happen if I exceed my data plan?

You will receive a notice the first time your usage exceeds your data plan and will not be billed.

In the following months, we will send you additional notices any time your usage exceeds 65% and 90% of your data plan to help you track and manage your usage. The next time you exceed 150GB you'll once again be notified, but will not be billed.
If you exceed your data plan in any subsequent billing period, we'll provide you with an additional 50GB of data for $10. You'll be charged $10 for every incremental 50GB of usage beyond your plan.

Importantly, if you do not receive a notice from AT&T, it means that you have not exceeded your data plan. In some cases, it may mean that we cannot measure your usage yet. Either way, you should not be concerned about your usage patterns for billing purposes.
If I exceed my monthly usage, when will I see the usage charges on my bill?

The usage measurement is based on your billing date. AT&T bills usage charges in arrears. Depending on your billing date and when you exceed your data plan within your billing cycle, it may take one (1) to two (2) billing cycles before you will see usage charges on your bill. When you exceed the monthly data in your plan for a third time, typically you will see the charges for additional data on the next month's bill.
Where will I receive notices about my broadband usage?

You will receive notices about your broadband usage at the primary email address that you set up when you registered for Service. We will send a letter by U.S. mail if we cannot reach you by email or do not have your email address."


And please, do NOT even tell me to get their "Gigapower" 1TB plan. For one thing it is not even available here, and even if it was I probably would not want to pay what it would cost!



Also, as I said above, I specifically EXCLUDED cell phones and cell phone plans. Sorry but they just don't count in this! Yes, we all know there are many cell carriers just going crazy with low ball offers with plenty of, or even unlimited data, but again, they don't count.

[Chris D]

Geez... I'd love to have that much capacity. Until last month, I had a 25 GB cap every month (sum of upload/download) for my home internet. I was getting some ludicrous overage charges, though, (think like $300/month just in overages) so I bit the bullet and am now paying extra for 70 GB/month cap. :roll: At least it's cheaper than all those overages. No way I can afford that.

[Burke Strickland]

once more ISP's decide to start grabbing for more money from the people who transfer a lot of data every month from things like steaming movies.

They're cashing in on the porno downloads? :>)

[Hdale85]

Well 150gb and even 250gb is a ton of streaming. If Netflix required that bandwidth for each of it's users each month it'd cost a lot more for Netflix.

[impala454]

It will become a "niche" product something between DVD-A/SACD and vinyl (without vinyl's sentimental attachment or DJ use to bolster it).

DVD-A/SACD never had the market penetration that bluray currently has. Nobody walked into a big box store and saw six rows of SACDs, or saw them take over CDs as the disc of choice (which BD definitely has taken over DVD in any store I go into). Not to mention stuff like WhoCaresSitcomFrom1992 being "remastered" on BD. Companies don't waste effort like that on a non-viable format.

Vinyl is only around because it's "cool" again.

The BD vs streaming "war" is not a format war, it's two different delivery methods of the same format. At the insane rates of internet bandwidth lately and more and more caps and regulation of said bandwidth, which one is really cheaper to bring to market and provides more profit for the movie industry? Think carefully before you answer

[wkhanna]

Vinyl is only around because it's "cool" again.

Ouch!
I agree with everything you said........except that little part about analog......:W

[JohnA]

Well 150gb and even 250gb is a ton of streaming.

Maybe so, but unless the higher D/L speeds needed are also available to you to make it work for HD video reliably, and also at a affordable cost. It don't mean much.
The size of the amount of data on a Blu-Ray varies, but it can also exceed 25gb for one disc, in that case 150gb will not get you a whole lot of Blu-Ray type content.

[Hdale85]

Well the blu-ray type content has a ton of extra features and what not, not to mention the lossless audio. To get pretty close to Blu-Ray quality with Dolby Digital Plus sound you won't be using anything close to 25gb of data. Maybe a couple gigs at most? The streaming compression they use is really good honestly, I don't notice any artifacts or anything it looks really clean.

[impala454]

Ouch!
I agree with everything you said........except that little part about analog......:W

Hehe, I didn't mean to diss vinyl, I more meant it's only "around" meaning seeing it increasingly available in stores and such.

[wkhanna]

I know, Chuck!

I am just glad to see you back here posting again!

[Chris D]

See below for the kind of thing I'm talking about. Italy is FAR from a poor and desolate location, but even they don't have the internet infrastructure yet to support streaming. Streaming may be perfectly possible in downtown NYC. But that doesn't mean everywhere is just like it. Physical media is far from dead.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/netflixs-arrival-italy-slowed-by-687940

[Hdale85]

Like I said, there is no reason they couldn't have a flexible streaming model that let them produce discs in places where streaming isn't possible, while pushing streaming only services in places like the united states.

[JohnA]

And why should they push a streaming only service anywhere, when in areas that do have the capabilities there is really no reason at all why both can not be offered?
It still boils down to some people flat out are not at all interested in streaming and should not be forced to do it by some idiotic possibility of the discontinuation of available physical media because of where they live.

[Hdale85]

Streaming numbers are continuing to grow, while blu-ray sales are falling. Why spend money manufacturing discs that are showing now signs of growth? It's cheaper to stream it plan and simple. We do not get to choose what companies do, at least not to that extent. We are always forced into new formats, Blu-ray for example wasn't really chosen by us? There are new formats all the time and we don't usually get to choose which one gets pushed onto us, we just kind of roll with the flow, but either way most people are loving the streaming service and I don't see that going away. I don't see companies producing the discs they do for a small percentage of the population that likes physical media.

[Chris D]

Complaint from Netflix CEO on the costs of streaming internet data. Interpret as you see fit.

http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/netflix-ceo-slams-isps-extracting-toll-because-they-can-n58731

[Hdale85]

Yeah he's likely talking about Comcast.... Honestly this will eventually be weeded out as well. This level of streaming is a new technology and as such some companies will try and make huge money on it.

[Chris D]

That's one way to look at it.